专题报告：旺季尾声产量居高不下，材库存压力显现

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment is positive, and the profitability of steel enterprises is acceptable. The improvement in corporate profits has led to a relatively high level of finished product output. The continuous high supply has resulted in significant inventory pressure on finished products during the peak consumption season. If inventory cannot be effectively reduced during the peak season, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices. Attention should be paid to industry profits and inventory reduction [4][5]. - In the follow - up, focus on the inventory of finished products at the end of the peak consumption season. If the inventory cannot be effectively reduced, the prices of finished products are expected to face significant pressure during the off - season [7]. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Steel Market Operation - In the first quarter of 2025, the prices of black varieties were generally weak. In the second quarter, due to tariff frictions and a weakening macro - market sentiment, finished product prices were under pressure. In mid - to late June, the coking coal market bottomed out and rebounded, driving up the prices of black - series products. In July, the "anti - involution" sentiment boosted prices, but in mid - to late August, prices fluctuated downwards. In October, high inventory suppressed steel prices [14]. - In 2025, construction steel consumption declined, but manufacturing steel consumption and steel exports increased. The difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar prices was positive, expanding from July to August and then showing a narrowing trend recently [20][24]. Steel Cycle Turns Positive, and Corporate Profits are Acceptable - In 2025, steel enterprises had good overall profitability. As of mid - to late October, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises remained above 55%. From January to August 2025, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 83.7 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period in 2024 [32]. High Production Enthusiasm of Steel Mills, and Output Remains Relatively High - The good profits of steel enterprises have enhanced their production enthusiasm. As of mid - to late October, the daily average output of molten iron from 247 blast furnaces was around 2.41 million tons, about 80,000 tons higher than the same period in 2024. The daily consumption of scrap steel also remained at a high level [38][40]. At the End of the Peak Consumption Season, the Inventory Pressure of Finished Products Remains High - During the traditional off - season in July and August, high profitability drove up production. In September and October, most steel mills maintained high operating rates. The inventory of finished products did not show seasonal reduction, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was particularly prominent. As of the week ending October 17, 2025, the total inventory of five major steel products was 15.823 million tons, with an unsatisfactory inventory reduction rate. If demand does not increase significantly, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices [51][57]. Summary - The macro - sentiment is positive, and steel enterprises have acceptable profitability. The improvement in corporate profits has led to a relatively high level of finished product output. The continuous high supply has resulted in significant inventory pressure on finished products during the peak consumption season. If inventory cannot be effectively reduced during the peak season, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices. Attention should be paid to industry profits and inventory reduction [64][65]. - In the follow - up, focus on the inventory of finished products at the end of the peak consumption season. If the inventory cannot be effectively reduced, the prices of finished products are expected to face significant pressure during the off - season [66].