工业硅、多晶硅日评：关注供给端变动-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply side may tighten as some silicon enterprises in the southwest will gradually reduce production or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the demand side has limited improvement, and the overall situation remains in an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. For polycrystalline silicon, although the supply side may still have a slight increase in production in October, the demand side is weak, and the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises may limit the upward space of the spot price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Information: The average price of industrial silicon 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.60% to 8,565 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: In October, the southwest production area has entered the high - cost dry season, and some silicon enterprises will reduce or stop production. If northern silicon enterprises do not resume production on a large scale, the supply will tighten. The demand side shows that polysilicon enterprises may still have an increase in production in October, organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday operating level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, with limited willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - Investment Strategy: The overall situation is oversupplied, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to conduct range operations [1]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Price Information: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51.25 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material rose 0.09% to 52.80 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at 50.25 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 3.82% to 50,340 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: The supply side may still have a slight increase in production in October after offsetting the increase and decrease. The demand side is weak during the National Day holiday, with few new transactions, and downstream enterprises resist high - priced resources [1]. - Investment Strategy: The upward movement of the polycrystalline silicon market is limited by the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips [1]. Export and Import Information - Industrial Silicon: In September 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 70,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 561,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In September 2025, the import volume of metallic silicon was 1,900 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 8,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64% [1]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: Some polycrystalline silicon production bases in the southwest region will gradually reduce raw material input and are expected to completely stop production from the end of October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [1].