宁证期货今日早评-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the market is complex and volatile, with different commodities showing various trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and macro - economic conditions. For example, the US government shutdown and geopolitical events impact the oil market, while cost and demand factors affect the prices of industrial products like coke and steel [1][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - In September, the output of industrial crude oil above designated size was 17.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points faster than that in August. From January to September, the output was 162.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. The EU plans to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028. The US government shutdown continues, pressuring the crude oil market. Supply - demand and geopolitical factors suppress oil prices, and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations needs to be followed [1]. Coke - Independent coke enterprises' average profit per ton of coke this week is - 13 yuan/ton, with a capacity utilization rate of 74.24% (a decrease of 0.94%), and the daily coke output is 65.29 million tons (a decrease of 0.83 million tons). Supply is tightened due to negative profits and factors like environmental protection and maintenance. Although iron - water production declines slightly, there is still rigid demand. As the peak season ends, both supply and demand weaken, but the iron - water output is relatively stable, so the coke price is expected to remain stable [1]. PX - The operating rates of Asian and domestic PX decreased month - on - month. The domestic PX load decreased by 0.81% to 87.4%, and the Asian PX load increased by 0.96% to 77.92%. This week's PX output was 733,100 tons, a decrease of 69,000 tons from last week. The PX - N average was 225.68 dollars/ton, an increase of 6.9 dollars/ton month - on - month. Asian PX device maintenance is limited, and the load is expected to remain at a relatively high level. PXN is under pressure, and PX is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Rubber - The price of Thai raw material rubber latex is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump rubber price is 50.2 Thai baht/kg. The price of Hainan rubber latex for full - latex production is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 15,400 yuan/ton. As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.07%. Overseas weather improvement pressures raw material prices, and the decline in synthetic rubber prices also affects natural rubber prices. The inventory in Qingdao port is decreasing slightly, and the tight spot circulation limits the decline of rubber prices. Recently, macro - factors have a greater impact than fundamentals, and caution is recommended. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations needs to be followed [3]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14.96187 million tons, an increase of 320,790 tons month - on - month. The daily ore - handling volume is 3.2932 million tons, a decrease of 122,200 tons. The inventory of coarse powder, lump ore, and pellet increased, while the inventory of fine powder decreased. The number of ships in port increased by 23 to 127. The iron ore market is transitioning from "strong supply and demand" to "strong supply and weak demand", and port inventory accumulation pressure is gradually realized. An oscillating and bearish approach is recommended, and the actual iron - water production of steel mills should be focused on. If the iron - water production drops rapidly, the downward space of ore prices may be opened. Attention should be paid to market expectations before two important macro - meetings in October [4]. Rebar - On October 20, domestic steel market prices fluctuated. The ex - factory price of billets in Tangshan Qian'an remained stable at 2,920 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton, and three steel mills maintained stable operations. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3,217 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Domestic steel demand is weak, and steel mills continue to control production. The supply and demand are both weak. The raw material market is differentiated, with iron ore and scrap steel prices under pressure, and coke starting the second round of price increases due to rising coking coal prices. In the short term, the market is mixed, and steel prices may adjust weakly and narrowly [5]. Live Pigs - In the third week of October, the national pig - grain ratio was 5.22, a month - on - month decrease of 4.40%; the national pig - feed ratio was 4.56, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00%. According to current prices and costs, the expected profit per head of piglets in the fattening mode is - 281.88 yuan. The average price of live pigs continued to decline this week. Yesterday, the national live - pig price adjusted stably and strongly. Recently, the number of pigs for secondary fattening has increased significantly, and the willingness of farmers to hold prices is strong. After the price remained low, it rebounded slightly, and the market has improved compared with the previous period. In the short term, live - pig futures prices have stopped falling and stabilized, but there is insufficient momentum for a sharp rise, and they will fluctuate at the bottom [5]. Palm Oil - As of October 17, 2025 (week 42), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 575,700 tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from last week, an increase of 5.13%; a year - on - year increase of 59,800 tons, an increase of 11.59%. According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil product exports from October 1 - 20 were 1.044784 million tons, an increase of 3.44% from the same period last month. The export growth rate of Malaysian palm oil in October decreased significantly, indicating weak export momentum. India's import demand has been basically released before the Diwali Festival, so the demand in October is likely to decline. In China, there was a large - scale arrival of goods last week, and the arrivals are concentrated recently, putting pressure on prices. Short - term operation suggestions are to maintain low - buying and sell at high prices [7]. Soybeans - In week 42 of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, while the soybean meal inventory and unexecuted contracts decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.687 million tons, an increase of 29,400 tons from last week, an increase of 0.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6575 million tons, an increase of 27.49%. The soybean meal inventory was 976,200 tons, a decrease of 102,900 tons from last week, a decrease of 9.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 39,000 tons, an increase of 4.16%. The spot market of imported soybeans is strong, and farmers sell a limited amount of newly harvested crops. Strong domestic demand offsets the pressure caused by continuous trade tensions. In the short term, soybean futures (No. 2) will oscillate and stabilize, and follow - up attention should be paid to macro - news. The domestic new - season soybean market is stable and may have room for an increase [8]. Plastic - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE was 7,073 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The weekly output of LLDPE was 308,600 tons, a decrease of 3.23%. The inventory of production enterprises was 188,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.89%. The daily production profit of oil - based LLDPE was - 73 yuan/ton. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products in China increased by 3.3% week - on - week, with the overall operating rate of agricultural film increasing by 7.3% and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreasing by 0.7%. The supply of LLDPE has decreased, but the market spot is sufficient, and there is supply pressure. The social sample warehouse inventory is at a relatively high level. The demand of downstream factories is growing slowly, and the purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The cost - end support is loosening. It is expected that the L2601 contract will oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 6,930 level. Observation is recommended until further stabilization [9]. PVC - In September, the PVC export volume was 346,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC was 4,600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.94%. The PVC social inventory was 1.0338 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The average profit of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises was - 713 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises was - 552 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises was 40.43%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. PVC supply has decreased from a high level. It is expected that some device maintenance will end this week, and the output is expected to increase, with overall supply expected to rise. Domestic and foreign demand is showing a stable and rising trend, and PVC social inventory has decreased slightly. Recently, cost support is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support of the 01 contract at the 4,665 level. Observation or short - term buying on dips is recommended [10]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - soda ash is 1,271 yuan/ton, and the price has been weak recently. The weekly output of soda ash is 740,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.93%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7005 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.45%. The operating rate of float glass is 76.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 percentage points. The average price of national float glass is 1,223 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 64.2756 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 2.31%. The float - glass operating rate is relatively stable, but inventory has increased. The demand in the East China market is weak, and with the impact of low - price foreign goods, enterprise shipments are significantly restricted, and the spot trading atmosphere is dull. The domestic soda - ash market is oscillating, and the price is running stably. Supply remains at a high level, downstream demand is average, and the purchasing sentiment is cautious, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. It is expected that the 01 contract of soda ash will oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1,190 level. Observation or short - term buying on dips is recommended [11][12]. Short - Term Treasury Bonds - Most money - market interest rates have risen. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase for the 1 - day variety decreased by 0.55 BP to 1.314%, the 7 - day variety increased by 2.47 BP to 1.4332%, the 14 - day variety increased by 4.15 BP to 1.4983%, and the 1 - month variety remained unchanged at 1.5%, reaching a new low in more than a month. The money supply has tightened slightly, which is negative for short - term bonds. In the fourth quarter, there are both loose liquidity and stock - market disturbances. The positive factors for treasury - bond futures are increasing, but they may still oscillate in the medium term [12]. Silver - The Sino - US sides are about to return to the negotiation table. The tariff disturbance factor has weakened, which is positive for risk appetite. Silver fluctuates passively following gold. After the US government's normal operation is restored, attention should be paid to the impact of economic data. The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest - rate cut in October, and silver faces further correction risks. The impact of gold on silver should be followed [12]. Gold - The longer the US government shutdown lasts, the stronger the market's risk - aversion sentiment. After the government resumes operation, the economic data also worries the market, and the risk - aversion sentiment has pushed gold to a new high. It is not recommended to chase the rise of precious metals, and observation is advisable. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and its impact on gold [13].