2025年四季度国债期货展望：长牛进入尾声，中期有望冲击前高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bull market of treasury bond futures is entering the end (high - level oscillation stage), and there is a possibility of a mid - term upward rush [7]. - The mid - term adjustment of the bond bull market is over, and it is expected to resume its upward trend [8]. - Positive factors in the macro - economy are gradually accumulating, which may indicate the end of the current bond bull market [82]. - Treasury bond futures still have a large possibility of rising in the fourth quarter, and the long - term bull market may have entered the end, but there is no consensus on the duration of the high - level oscillation [98]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2.1 Current Macroeconomic Situation - Industrial Production: Except for the automobile industry, the growth rate of major industrial product output remains low. There are rumors that the automobile purchase tax will be restored in 2026, which will put pressure on automobile sales [15]. - Fixed - Asset Investment: The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continues to decline, and the decline trend has accelerated. Stronger policies may be introduced to boost investment [16][19]. - Real Estate Market: The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building. The data reflecting the scale of real - estate under construction has returned to the 2007 level, and housing prices are still falling month - on - month. The demand for "real - estate speculation" among residents is almost non - existent [20][23]. - Retail Sales: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has declined, and consumer confidence is hovering at a low level. The reasons are the weakening of income and income expectations and the high level of household leverage [24][28]. - Inflation: Inflation remains weak. Downstream commodity consumption is poor, while service consumption such as tourism performs better than expected. The downward pressure on producer prices is more obvious [29][31]. - Unemployment: Unemployment has seasonally increased with the entry of college graduates into the labor market, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of newly - added urban employment has flattened, indicating high employment pressure [37][39]. - Manufacturing PMI: The manufacturing PMI continues to be weak. Among the PMI sub - items, production and the purchase price of major raw materials are above the boom - bust line, while other sub - items are below it [40][42]. - Production and Inventory: Production is stronger than demand, and inventories are increasing [43][46]. - Construction and Service PMI: The PMI of the construction industry and its important sub - items are at a low level in recent years, indicating the industry's downturn [47][49]. 2.2 Positive Factors in the Macroeconomy - Fiscal Policy: Fiscal policy remains loose. The government still has room to increase leverage, and the loose fiscal policy is expected to last for a long time. Various consumption subsidies will continue [51][53]. - Industrial Profits: The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size have improved month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to August has turned positive, and the year - on - year growth rate in August was 20% [54][56]. - Automobile Industry: The production and export of automobiles continue to increase. In the first nine months of this year, China exported 1.758 million new - energy vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 89.4%, and the total automobile exports increased by 14.8% to 4.95 million [58][64]. - Excavator Industry: The production and sales of excavators have improved, mainly due to the low - base effect, but there is still a large gap compared with the peak period [65][68]. - Stock Market and Commodity Market: When the M1 - M2 spread turns positive, PPI is also expected to turn positive. The stock market may be accompanied by a commodity bull market. Residents are starting to allocate more assets to the stock market [72][74]. - Export: Export performance is relatively good. The growth rate of imports and exports is better than expected. The supply - chain advantage is strengthening, and products such as automobiles and chips have strong export performance. Chip exports are increasing at a faster rate [75][81]. 3. Factors Affecting Treasury Bond Futures - Exchange Rate: Overseas funds are increasingly concerned about A - shares, causing the RMB to face more appreciation pressure than depreciation pressure. The US dollar is under downward pressure, and bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange have turned into a surplus, which is generally favorable for the A - share market [85][88]. - Monetary Policy: The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low for a long time, and the money market is expected to remain loose. The Fed's interest rate cuts provide room for domestic interest rate cuts, and there is still room for future interest rate cuts [93][96]. 4. Analysis of Treasury Bond Futures Market - Seasonal Pattern: According to the seasonal pattern of the past 10 years, the probability of treasury bond futures rising from November to December is high, with the probability reaching 67% in November and 89% in December [99][101]. - Adjustment Period: The treasury bond futures have been adjusted for more than half a year, indicating a possible market reversal or the end of the bull market [103][104]. - Yield Comparison: In the long - and medium - term, the yields of treasury bonds are significantly negatively correlated with the stock market and industrial product prices [106][108]. - Conclusion and Suggestions: The bull market of treasury bond futures may have entered the end, or it may have reversed or entered a high - level oscillation. In the fourth quarter, factors such as the Sino - US trade friction and expected interest rate cuts support the market. It is recommended to buy treasury bond futures at low prices and hold them until December or January next year [111].