商品期货早班车-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged in the gold market, but there are contradictions in the Fed's outlook. The short - term price is at a historical high, and there may be significant high - level fluctuations. In the basic metals market, most metals are expected to show a certain degree of volatility. In the black industry, the supply - demand contradictions of steel products are limited but with obvious structural differentiation. In the agricultural products market, the supply - demand situations of different products vary, and the market trends are affected by multiple factors such as production, policies, and seasons. In the energy and chemical industry, the supply - demand patterns of different products are different, and the market trends are also complex, with some products expected to be in a state of supply - demand balance or imbalance [1][2][5]. 3. Summaries by Categories Gold Market - Market performance: International gold priced in London rebounded and then plunged on Monday, with the price returning to $4300 [1]. - Fundamentals: The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in China - US economic and trade consultations. The US government shutdown may end this week. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters. Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow in, and the inventories of gold and silver in different regions changed. The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs increased [1]. - Trading strategy: Hold long gold positions, and hold long silver positions cautiously [1]. Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: The copper price fluctuated strongly yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: The market is concerned about the Fed's rate cut at the end of the month, and the dollar index fluctuates weakly. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the domestic refined copper production change is small. The demand side shows a certain premium in spot trading, and the domestic inventory increases [2]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a short - term view of fluctuating strongly [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract had no obvious change, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 10 yuan/ton, with the LME price at $2774.5/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate remains stable [2]. - Trading strategy: It is expected that the price will maintain a fluctuating and strongly - running state, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.21% compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 73 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan implemented maintenance or production reduction due to ore supply limitations or production plan adjustments, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2][3]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main contract opened higher on Monday, then fluctuated, with the closing price up 1.60% and the position decreasing [3]. - Fundamentals: The number of furnaces in operation increased this week, and it is expected that the southwest region will start to reduce production in late October. The social inventory accumulates, and the demand is supported by the high start - up rate of polysilicon [3]. - Trading strategy: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The LC2601 contract closed at $75,940/ton, up 0.21% [3]. - Fundamentals: The production and import of lithium carbonate change, and the demand for downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increases. It is expected to maintain a tight balance in October, and the inventory decreases [3]. - Trading strategy: The current spot demand is high and is expected to remain in short supply. Pay attention to the inventory reduction of warehouse receipts, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The main contract opened higher on Monday, then fell and fluctuated, with the closing price down 3.82% and the position decreasing [3]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production decreased slightly, and it is expected that the production in October will increase by 6%. The industry inventory accumulates. The installation of domestic photovoltaic power generation in the fourth quarter is expected to face pressure [3]. - Trading strategy: For the November contract, there is a price bottom support at 48,000. For the December and later contracts, if there is a discount to the spot price, consider a small - position long - position trial [3]. Tin - Market performance: The tin price fluctuated strongly yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: The market is concerned about the Fed's rate cut at the end of the month, and the dollar index fluctuates weakly. The supply of tin ore has been slightly alleviated, and the global visible inventory continues to decline [4]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a view of fluctuating strongly [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The rebar main contract 2601 closed at 3044 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The building material inventory decreased by 1.4%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7%. The supply - demand contradiction of steel products is limited, but the structural differentiation is significant [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of RB01 being 3010 - 3080 [5]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main contract 2601 closed at 767.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the port inventory increased. The supply - demand of iron ore is moderately strong, and the subsequent inventory accumulation may be slower than the historical average [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of I01 being 750 - 780 [5]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The coking coal main contract 2601 closed at 1188 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron production decreased, and the first round of price increase has been implemented, with the second round facing resistance. The overall inventory level has decreased significantly, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of JM01 being 1155 - 1215 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market performance: The CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - Fundamentals: The US soybeans have a slight reduction in production, and South America has an expected increase in production. The demand is differentiated, and the global high - inventory expectation remains unchanged [6][7]. - Trading strategy: US soybeans are in a range - bound state. The domestic market is currently loose, and the one - sided trend is weak, but the medium - term uncertainty is large [7]. Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices continued to rebound, and spot prices fluctuated [7]. - Fundamentals: Bad weather in North China affects corn harvesting, and the new - crop corn is expected to increase in production. The cost has decreased significantly, and the spot price is expected to be weak [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the pressure of new - crop listing [7]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian market was closed yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia is in a seasonal decline, and the export is expected to increase. The near - term inventory accumulates, and the far - term production is expected to decline seasonally [7]. - Trading strategy: The one - sided trading of oils and fats is more difficult, and the P structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage [7]. White Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5443 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [7]. - Fundamentals: The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season has exceeded the previous year. The high sugar - making ratio throughout the season is a fact, and the international sugar price is under pressure [7]. - Trading strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures price rose and then fell overnight, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rebound [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand balance sheet of Indian cotton in the 24/25 year was released, and the domestic cotton purchase price increased [7]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips, with the strategy range of 13400 - 13800 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices fell [7]. - Fundamentals: The egg price has fallen to a low level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, but the supply is sufficient, and the egg price is expected to be weak [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply [7]. Pigs - Market performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, and spot prices continued to rise [8]. - Fundamentals: The pig slaughter volume will continue to increase from October to November. The slaughter profit has recovered, and the pig price is expected to be in a weak bottom - grinding state [8]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to sufficient supply [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly yesterday, with the basis stable and the market trading average [9]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure increases but at a slower pace, and the demand in the agricultural film season has improved [9]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, it will fluctuate. In the long term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse arbitrage on the spread [9]. PVC - Market performance: The V01 contract closed at 4700, down 0.1% [9]. - Fundamentals: The PVC price continues to fall, the export has increased significantly, the supply has increased, and the social inventory is at a high level [9]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to short [9]. PTA - Market performance: The PX CFR China price is $783/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4325 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX and PTA is expected to be loose, and the PTA inventory decreases slightly [9]. - Trading strategy: The PX price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short the processing fee of PTA's far - month contracts at high prices [9]. Rubber - Market performance: The RU2601 contract closed at 14810 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [9]. - Fundamentals: The raw material price in Thailand is stable with a slight increase, the inventory in Qingdao has decreased significantly, and the cost support still exists [9][10]. - Trading strategy: The short - term may maintain a weak - fluctuating pattern. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and not to short further. Pay attention to the support at 14600 yuan/ton [10]. Glass - Market performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1090, down 2.4% [10]. - Fundamentals: The glass price has fallen, the supply is at a high level, the inventory has accumulated, and the demand has not recovered seasonally [10]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to the poor demand improvement [10]. PP - Market performance: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly yesterday, with the basis stable and the market trading average [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increases, the export window is open, and the downstream is in the peak season, but part of the fourth - quarter demand has been overdrawn [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, it will fluctuate. In the long term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse arbitrage on the spread [10]. MEG - Market performance: The MEG East China spot price is 4076 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 74 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply of MEG increases, and the inventory accumulates [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, wait and see due to the macro - situation and low inventory. In the long term, short at high prices due to the large inventory - accumulation pressure [10]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price has been weak recently due to multiple negative factors, but the decline has narrowed [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weak, and there are uncertainties in the global economic and oil - product demand prospects [10][11]. - Trading strategy: Hold short positions in SC [11]. Styrene - Market performance: The EB main contract declined slightly yesterday, with the market trading average [11]. - Fundamentals: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene are at normal or relatively high levels, the downstream enterprises are in losses, and part of the fourth - quarter demand has been overdrawn [11]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly. In the long term, as the supply increases, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse arbitrage on the spread [11]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA01 contract closed at 1218, unchanged [11]. - Fundamentals: The soda ash price is at the bottom and fluctuating, the inventory is in balance, and the supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [11]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to the weak supply - demand balance and low price [11]. Caustic Soda - Market performance: The SH01 contract closed at 2380, down 0.8% [11]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of caustic soda has stopped falling, the futures price has continued to fall, the inventory has accumulated, and the non - aluminum demand has not recovered as expected [11]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to the unexpected decline in the downstream delivery price [11].