Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea prices have been oscillating at a low level recently, and the spot market remains dull. The potential upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not emerged. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb the high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to oscillate at a low level. However, the current urea valuation is at a low level, and short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see (viewpoint score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Changes - Futures Prices: On October 20, UR01 in Shanxi was 1600 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 was 1675 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.18%; UR09 was 1708 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. In Shandong, it was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Henan, it remained unchanged at 1550 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): In Hebei, it was 1580 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.63%; in the Northeast and Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 1620 yuan/ton and 1560 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Upstream Costs: The anthracite price in Henan was 1030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 3.00%; in Shanxi, it remained unchanged at 880 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged at 5067 yuan/ton and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 125 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1]. 3.3. Important Information - On October 15, India's RCF urea import tender received 366 million tons of supplies from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was 402 US dollars/ton on the west coast and 395 US dollars/ton on the east coast. In September 2025, urea imports were 76.08 tons, a 2.01% month - on - month decrease; from January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1977.06 tons, a 49.06% year - on - year decrease. In September, urea exports were 137.12 million tons, a 72.12% month - on - month increase; from January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 281.23 million tons, a 1007.70% year - on - year increase [1].
尿素早评：低估值等待驱动-20251021
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-21 01:32