期货眼日迹：每日早盘观察-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. Each commodity has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding trading strategies based on factors such as macro - environment, seasonal changes, and policy impacts [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products - Bean Meal: The macro - environment affects the market. International soybean pressure is high, and domestic bean meal may face supply pressure and price decline. Suggestions include shorting the 05 contract, conducting M11 - 1 positive arbitrage, and selling call options at high points [17]. - Sugar: International raw sugar prices are weak, and domestic sugar is expected to follow. It is recommended to short at high prices [20][21]. - Oils and Fats: The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. It is advisable to wait and consider going long on dips [24][25]. - Corn/Corn Starch: New grain prices are rebounding, and the market is expected to be strong and volatile. It is recommended to go long on the 12, 01, 05, and 07 contracts [28][29]. - Hogs: Supply pressure persists, and prices may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and use a short - straddle strategy for options [30][32]. - Peanuts: There is a reduction in production, and the market is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [34]. - Eggs: Demand is fair, but the egg price is still under pressure. It is recommended to close out short positions and wait [38]. - Apples: The high - quality fruit rate is average, and prices are expected to be stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to go long on the 11 - month contract and short the 1 - month contract [41][42]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: New cotton acquisition is accelerating, and the market is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait [45]. Black Metals - Steel: Demand is weak, and valuations are low. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to conduct long - short spread arbitrage on the volume - screw difference [48][49]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Market sentiment is cooling, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to go long on dips for coking coal [51]. - Iron Ore: It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium term and conduct cash - futures reverse arbitrage [52][54]. - Ferroalloys: Demand is expected to be weak, but valuations and costs provide support. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [55][56]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: Due to the U.S. government shutdown and high expectations of Fed rate cuts, precious metals are expected to rise. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy deep - out - of - the - money call options [59][60][63]. - Copper: The market is expected to consolidate in the short term, and the long - term trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips and conduct cross - market positive arbitrage [64][65]. - Alumina: Supply is showing marginal changes, and prices are expected to bottom - out at low levels. It is recommended to wait and observe [69][71]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips [74][76]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price is expected to be strong and volatile. It is recommended to go long on dips [78]. - Zinc: It is recommended to wait and observe. Consider short - selling LME zinc and buying SHFE zinc if the ratio deteriorates [84]. - Lead: Supply is gradually recovering, and prices may decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [86][89]. - Nickel: Accumulating inventories indicate an oversupply, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short at the upper limit of the shock range and sell a wide - straddle option combination [89][91]. - Stainless Steel: Demand is weak, and prices may be in a weak and volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and observe [94][95]. Other Commodities - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. It is recommended to wait for a full correction [96][97]. - Polysilicon: It is recommended to avoid long positions in the short term and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [99]. - Lithium Carbonate: Demand provides support, and supply has risks. Lithium prices are expected to rise [100].