宝城期货资讯早班车-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic operation in the first three quarters maintained a stable and progressive trend, with major macro - indicators generally stable and positive results achieved in high - quality development. The next stage should focus on promoting the implementation of more proactive macro - policies to ensure stable employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and promote sustained and healthy economic development [17][18] - The bond market has shown a repair trend, and its continuation depends on the combination of fiscal and monetary policies. There is still room for incremental measures in monetary policy, and the upward risk of bond yields is limited [27] - The bond market has faced the pressure of non - bank funds flowing into the stock market since July. The de - leveraging trend of institutions is likely to continue in the fourth quarter, and the market style will probably continue the "interest rate stronger than credit" switch [28][29] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In September 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.0% [1] - In September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.5%, 7.2%, and 8.4% respectively; the CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year [1] - In September 2025, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China and the US are about to return to the negotiation table. The US will raise issues regarding rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans. China advocates resolving issues through equal, respectful, and reciprocal consultations [2] - In the first three quarters, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3% [2] - In September, housing prices in various cities showed a downward trend month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow, and the number of cities with year - on - year increases in new housing prices increased [2] - China's 10 - month LPR remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month. There is still room for moderate monetary policy easing in the fourth quarter [3] - On October 9, the total funds in China's futures market exceeded 2 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [3] - Dalian Commodity Exchange will launch monthly average price futures for linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene on October 28, and expand the scope of tradable varieties for qualified overseas investors [3] 3.2.2 Metals - International gold prices rose by more than 4% on Monday. COMEX gold futures for December delivery reached a high of $4398 per ounce [5] - International precious metal futures generally rose, and London base metals mostly increased [5] - Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold will raise prices for their gold products [5] - As of October 17, inventories of various metals in the London Metal Exchange decreased to varying degrees [6] - As of October 20, the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 1.09% [6] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for gold and silver futures [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In September, China's production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel showed different trends. From January to September, the cumulative production of crude steel and pig iron decreased year - on - year, while that of steel increased [7][8] - In September, the decline in raw coal production narrowed, the growth rate of crude oil and natural gas production accelerated, and power production was stable [8] - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next six months [8] - BHP still forecasts annual attributable ore output of 260 - 270 million tons and annual copper production of 1.8 - 2 million tons [9] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - There are differences in statements between the US and India regarding India's purchase of Russian oil [10] - EU member states support phasing out imports of Russian natural gas by January 2028 [10] - The CEO of Saudi Aramco warned of a potential global oil shortage and called for increased investment in exploration and production [10] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange will adjust the threshold for the open interest of the underlying futures contracts in the crude oil option contract text [11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - From October 6 - 12, 2025, the average purchase price of pigs and the average ex - factory price of white - striped pork decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [12] - The summer grain purchase in 2025 ended in September, with a total purchase of 107.95 million tons of wheat. The minimum purchase price policy played a role in stabilizing the market [12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs launched an action to combat autumn floods, rush to sow wheat, and promote strong seedlings [12] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 20, the central bank conducted 189 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [13] - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank will conduct a tender for the 10th installment of the 2025 central treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit on October 23, with an operation volume of 120 billion yuan and a term of 1 month [13] 3.3.2 Important News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China began on October 20 [15] - China's 9 - month economic data showed that the growth rate of social consumer goods retail总额 was 3%, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year [17] - New policy - based financial instruments are being rapidly deployed. As of October 17, the China Development Bank, the Export - Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China have made significant investments, which are expected to drive large - scale project investments [18] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration are conducting a joint supervision pilot on the agency accounting and tax - related services of agency accounting firms [18] - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 601.3 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease. In September, RMB loans increased by 78.4 billion yuan, also with a year - on - year decrease [18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized accelerating the implementation of the work plan for stabilizing the growth of the building materials industry, including measures such as banning new production capacity, standardizing existing capacity, and eliminating backward capacity [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - Due to the rebound of the A - share market and progress in Sino - US talks, bond yields in the inter - bank market rose, and treasury bond futures declined. The inter - bank market funds were generally balanced [21] - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose and some fell. The Wande Real Estate Bond 30 Index fell by 0.10%, and the Wande High - Yield Urban Investment Bond Index rose by 0.03% [21] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.06%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose by 0.38% [22] - Interest rates in the money market showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [22][23] - The weighted winning yields of 91 - day, 3 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.2746%, 1.4910%, and 1.8204% respectively [24] - European and US bond yields showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [24][25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1231, up 34 points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0973, down 24 points from the previous trading day [26] - The US dollar index rose by 0.07%. Most non - US currencies fell, while the Australian dollar and the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose [26] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - In the first half of this year, the global green bond issuance volume reached $330 billion, and China ranked second globally. About 11% of overseas green bonds were denominated in RMB [27] - The repair trend of the bond market depends on fiscal and monetary policies. There is still room for incremental monetary policy measures, and the upward risk of bond yields is limited [27] - In 2026, PPI may show a steady upward trend, and CPI may fluctuate. The impact on the bond market depends on demand - side policy increments [27] - Since July, the bond market has faced the pressure of non - bank funds flowing into the stock market. The de - leveraging trend of institutions is likely to continue in the fourth quarter, and the market style will probably continue the "interest rate stronger than credit" switch [28][29] - The risks of two US regional banks are less severe than the previous round, mainly causing emotional fermentation. Credit risks in a high - interest - rate environment are rising, but a credit crunch may be mild [29] - Sichuan's strategic location, large population, and regional differences will drive investment demand, and its special bond balance has tripled since 2019, while the debt growth rate of urban investment enterprises has slowed down [29] 3.4 Stock Market News - The A - share market showed a shrinking and volatile trend on Monday, with more stocks rising than falling. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.98%. The market turnover decreased to 1.75 trillion yuan [31][32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 2.42%. Technology stocks rebounded, and civil aviation stocks soared. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of HK$2.67 billion, with Alibaba being the major net - sold stock [32]