沪铜日评：中美互征关税缓和和铜矿供给偏紧预期支撑铜价-20251021

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariff policies, expectations of future Fed rate cuts and halt of balance - sheet reduction, and production disruptions in overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously bullish [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Summary - Shanghai Copper Futures: On October 20, 2025, the closing price was 85380, up 990 from the previous day; trading volume was 158661 lots, up 37611; open interest was 226910 lots, up 11337; inventory was 41319 tons, down 1530 [1] - LME Copper Futures: The closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on October 20, 2025, was 10712.5, up 105.5 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 23.35, down 6.52; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 99.11, down 10.51 [1] - COMEX Copper: On October 20, 2025, the total inventory weight was 346616, up 1964 from the previous day, and the price was 5.0485, up 0.06 [1] Supply - Demand Logic - Supply Side: There are production disruptions in multiple copper mines at home and abroad, resulting in a negative China copper concentrate import index, a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates, difficult scrap copper procurement, an increase in the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates, and an increase in the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October [1] - Demand Side: Domestic electrolytic copper holders have a weak willingness to sell, leading to low purchasing sentiment among downstream buyers [1] - Inventory Side: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared to last week; LME's electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [1] Trading Strategy Investors should mainly establish long positions after price corrections. Pay attention to the support levels of 80000 - 83000 and resistance levels of 86000 - 89000 for Shanghai copper; support levels of 9500 - 10200 and resistance levels of 11000 - 12000 for LME copper; support levels of 4.0 - 4.5 and resistance levels of 5.5 - 6.0 for COMEX copper [1]