国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts and analysis for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., considering factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2][10][11]. - Different futures have different trends, such as some being in a short - term shock market, some trending weakly, and some having their far - month valuations suppressed [2][10][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Conditions: PX paper goods were slightly weak in the afternoon; PTA futures fluctuated downwards, and the spot market had general negotiation atmosphere; a 400,000 - ton/year MEG device in Guangdong restarted, while a 400,000 - ton/year device in Fujian stopped for maintenance [6]. - Trend Intensity: All three have a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a weak trend [9]. - Views and Suggestions: PX is in a short - term shock market, and PXN long positions are recommended. PTA demand is expected to improve marginally, and short positions should be reduced. MEG has a weak unilateral trend with sufficient domestic supply and increasing inventory [10][11]. Rubber - Fundamental Data: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, etc. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, but downstream demand was flat, and the price was in a range - bound pattern [13][15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Data: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and prices of related products. The market had a weak trading atmosphere [16][17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]. - Market Outlook: The fundamentals have pressure, but the valuation is moderately low. With many important macro - events, the price is expected to fluctuate [18]. Asphalt - Fundamental Data: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The refinery's start - up rate and inventory rate changed slightly [19]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [28]. - Market News: The domestic asphalt refinery's production in November is expected to decrease. The factory and social inventories decreased [30]. LLDPE - Fundamental Data: Futures prices decreased, and there were changes in basis and spread. Spot prices remained stable [31]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [33]. - Market Analysis: The market is affected by the trade war, with weak cost support, increasing supply pressure, and sluggish demand [31][32]. PP - Fundamental Data: Futures prices decreased, and there were changes in basis and spread. Spot prices were weakly adjusted [35][36]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [37]. - Market Analysis: Affected by the trade war and falling oil prices, the supply is high, and the market is in a weak state [36]. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Data: Futures and spot prices are provided. The eastern part of Shandong had a price rebound, while the west and southwest had price cuts [39]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [42]. - Market Analysis: The supply pressure is not large in October, but the far - month valuation is suppressed by the expected alumina production cut [40]. Pulp - Fundamental Data: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, etc. The spot market was stable, and the supply was loose while demand was weak [44][45]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [44]. Glass - Fundamental Data: Futures prices decreased, and there were changes in basis and spread. Spot prices were adjusted downwards [48]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [48]. - Market News: The domestic float glass market price was adjusted downwards, and the trading atmosphere was general [48]. Methanol - Fundamental Data: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The port inventory decreased, but some regions had inventory accumulation [51][53]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [54]. - Market Outlook: The fundamentals have great pressure, but the valuation is moderately low. With many macro - events, the price is expected to fluctuate [53]. Urea - Fundamental Data: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, etc. The enterprise inventory increased [56][57]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [58]. - Market Outlook: The fundamentals have large pressure, and the valuation is high. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and trend weakly in the medium - term [57][58]. Styrene - Fundamental Data: There were changes in futures prices and spreads [59]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [59]. - Spot News: Short - sellers have a need to stop losses. The port inventory is expected to change from accumulation to depletion, and the market focuses on cost contradictions [60]. Soda Ash - Fundamental Data: Futures prices remained unchanged, and there were changes in basis and spread. Spot prices were stable [62]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [63]. - Market News: The domestic soda ash market was stable, with high supply and general procurement sentiment from the glass industry [63]. LPG, Propylene - Fundamental Data: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spreads. The PDH, MTBE, and alkylation start - up rates decreased [65]. - Trend Intensity: Both have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [68]. - Market News: There are PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [69][70]. PVC - Fundamental Data: Futures and spot prices are provided, and the basis and spread are given. The production is expected to increase [72]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [73]. - Market Analysis: Affected by the trade war and cost decline, PVC is in a negative feedback state with high supply and weak demand [72]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Data: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The low - sulfur fuel oil was weaker than the high - sulfur fuel oil [75]. - Trend Intensity: Both have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [75]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Fundamental Data: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and freight rates. The freight rates of European and US - West routes increased [77]. - Trend Intensity: The short - term trend is strong [77].