国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with ferrosilicon and silicomanganese having cost - based bottom support, and logs expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Investment Outlook: Wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - Fundamental Data: The futures closing price was 767.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton (-0.52%); the open interest increased by 10,158 lots to 555,584 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 1.0 yuan/ton to 902.0 yuan/ton, while the price of Super Special fines (56.5%) dropped 5.0 yuan/ton to 700.0 yuan/ton [6]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR remained at 3%. In September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with Beijing and Shanghai rising 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen falling 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. Second - tier and third - tier cities also saw price declines [6][7]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [8] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Investment Outlook: Wide - range fluctuations [2][10][11] - Fundamental Data: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%). In terms of spot prices, the price of rebar in Beijing rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in Guangzhou rose 20 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton [11]. - Macro and Industry News: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the average daily output was 2.449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to September, the crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. In the first ten days of October, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Investment Outlook: Cost - based bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][15] - Fundamental Data: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,436 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; for silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,738 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose 20 yuan/ton to 5,700 yuan/ton [15]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 20, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was reported, with some regions having price changes. In September 2025, China's imports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% increased by 38.54% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year; exports increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 8.04% year - on - year [15][17]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [18] Coke and Coking Coal - Investment Outlook: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][19][20] - Fundamental Data: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (3.1%); for coke J2601, the closing price was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (2.0%). The spot price of Jinquan Meng 5 coking coal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 1,307 yuan/ton [20]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to the iron ore section, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [21]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [22] Logs - Investment Outlook: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][23] - Fundamental Data: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 802.5 yuan, down 0.2% day - on - day and up 1.9% week - on - week; the trading volume decreased by 43.2%. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged [24]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to other sections, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [27]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [26]