山金期货黑色板块日报-20251021

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upcoming Sino-US trade consultations have improved market risk appetite. However, the apparent demand for steel products has recovered but remains weaker than the same period last year. High raw material prices and slow inventory decline are suppressing steel prices. The decline in steel mill profits may lead to production cuts and a negative feedback loop. Technically, the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils have broken below the lower Bollinger Band, facing significant pressure from the 10-day moving average [2]. - Sino-US trade tensions have eased, but the anti-competition policy has had a bearish impact on raw materials. High iron ore supply, slow inventory reduction in the steel market, and potential production cuts by steel mills due to profit decline are putting pressure on iron ore prices. Technically, the 01 contract has broken downward, indicating a possible strong downward trend [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - Market News: Sino-US trade consultations are to be held this week, improving market risk appetite [2]. - Supply and Demand: Apparent demand has recovered but is weaker than last year. Festival factors have led to an increase in building material inventory, and the slow decline in total inventory is suppressing prices. High raw material costs support prices, but the decline in steel mill profits may lead to production cuts [2]. - Technical Analysis: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices have broken below the lower Bollinger Band, with significant pressure from the 10-day moving average after a short-term rebound [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly and take profits promptly if there is a rapid and significant decline [2]. - Data Summary: - Prices: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have fluctuated. The basis and spreads have also changed [2]. - Production: The blast furnace operating rate and daily iron output of 247 steel mills have decreased slightly. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils has declined, while the productivity of independent electric arc furnace steel mills has increased significantly [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of five major steel products has decreased slightly, with a decrease in rebar inventory and an increase in hot-rolled coil inventory. The steel mill inventory of five major steel products has decreased significantly [2]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand for five major steel products has increased significantly [2]. 2. Iron Ore - Market News: Sino-US trade tensions have eased, but the anti-competition policy has had a bearish impact on raw materials [4]. - Supply and Demand: High iron ore supply, slow inventory reduction in the steel market, and potential production cuts by steel mills due to profit decline are putting pressure on iron ore prices [4]. - Technical Analysis: The 01 contract has broken downward, indicating a possible strong downward trend [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions [4]. - Data Summary: - Prices: Iron ore spot and futures prices have declined. The basis and spreads have changed [4]. - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments have increased, while the arrival volume and daily average port clearance volume have decreased. Port inventory has increased [4]. - Demand: The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has decreased [4]. 3. Industry News - The transfer fee of residential land in 300 cities increased by 12% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but the transaction area decreased by 8%. The land market cooled in the third quarter, with the average premium rate dropping to 5.8%, and the transaction area and transfer fee decreasing by 13% and 10% respectively [6]. - China's coal imports from Mongolia reached a record high in September, with imports of 9.29 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33% [6]. - From October 13th to 19th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.335 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.26 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 28.25 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.94 million tons [6]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%; steel production was 124.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [7]. - From October 20th, coal mines in Shanyin County, Shuozhou City will be shut down, involving a total production capacity of 34 million tons, and are expected to resume normal production on October 24th [8]. - From October 13th to 19th, 2025, Tangshan's steel mills will implement production control, and the expected operating rate of 29 sample steel mills will drop to 33%, with a daily output impact of about 50,000 tons [7]