化工日报：聚酯产业链偏弱运行，关注宏观变动-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry chain is operating weakly, and attention should be paid to macro - changes. The current situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war, and the meeting between the leaders of the two countries around the end of the month should be continuously monitored. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" and economic work, which also needs attention [2]. - In terms of the cost side, there is a supply - surplus contradiction due to the slowdown in China's import demand after the National Day and the increase in US and Middle - East exports. The macro and fundamentals are in resonance, putting pressure on the fundamentals without a clear rebound driver [3]. - PX is under pressure due to the recovery of China's PX load to a relatively high level, few fourth - quarter maintenance plans, and capacity expansion of some devices. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans, and the PX supply - demand support is limited [3]. - TA has a new device expected to be put into operation next month, with increasing inventory pressure after November. The cost - side support is weakening, and the demand is not strong during the peak season due to tariffs [3]. - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.1% month - on - month). After the National Day, the market calmed down, and filament inventory increased again. Terminal raw material procurement is mainly cautious. The weaving and texturing load decreased this week under high tariffs [4]. - PF has improved demand, with factory inventory reduced to a low level. The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to be strong [4][5]. - PR's fundamentals have little change, with maintenance continuing but general demand. The spot processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The report includes figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13]. Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It involves figures like the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of China, South Korea, and Taiwan's PTA, as well as China's and Asia's PX [29][32][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures of PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [50][52][54]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures of polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between raw and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [71][82][86]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [89][91][99].