农产品日报：郑棉低位反弹，关注中美谈判进展-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, short - term cotton prices may weaken again, but in the long - term, they can be viewed optimistically after seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, short - term Zhengzhou sugar may rebound slightly following the foreign market, but in the long - term, it should be treated with a bearish mindset [5] - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to continue its low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,465 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,552 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,679 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.311 million tons, imports 697,000 tons, consumption 5.338 million tons, and exports 306,000 tons, with the ending inventory remaining at 1.03 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed, increasing market volatility. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, and the short - term external market is under pressure [1] - Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, starting the new year with low inventory. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, limiting the decline of cotton prices [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,428 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.30%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,770 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [3] - In September 2025, China imported 151,400 tons of syrup and sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 135,200 tons [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September was higher than expected, suppressing the raw sugar price, but there is support from the ethanol price [5] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the domestic supply is sufficient in the short term, but the new - season production increase may be less than expected, and the downside space is limited [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,156 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact on the overall supply, and domestic port inventories remain high [7] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US and insufficient domestic demand are suppressing pulp prices, and downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [7]