新能源及有色金属日报：锂矿进口增加，消费支撑现货价格-20251021

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current short - term supply - demand pattern is favorable, with inventory continuously decreasing and the futures market having some support. It is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate. However, if the mining end resumes production and consumption weakens, the market may decline [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On October 20, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 76,260 yuan/ton and closed at 75,700 yuan/ton, with a - 0.08% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 169,108 lots, and the open interest was 138,434 lots (159,000 lots the previous day). The basis was - 1,960 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 30,705 lots, an increase of 19 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 - 74,500 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,150 - 72,350 yuan/ton, also up 650 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 860 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factory's operating rate is continuously rising, and demand supports spot transactions. New production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to continue to grow. The power market for new energy vehicles (both commercial and passenger) is growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. Import and Export Data - In September 2025, China imported 19,597 tons of lithium carbonate, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase. 11,000 tons were imported from Chile (55% of the total), and 6,948 tons were imported from Argentina (35% of the total). Exports were 151 tons, a 59% month - on - month decrease and a 9% year - on - year decrease [2]. - In September 2025, China imported 710,600 tons of spodumene, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. From January to September 2025, the total import volume was 5.576 million tons, a 37% year - on - year increase [2]. Strategy - The futures market showed a weak and slight fluctuation on the day. Lithium ore imports increased significantly, lithium salt imports decreased slightly month - on - month, and overall imports were relatively good. The rapid reduction of warehouse receipts slowed down, and warehouse receipts began to increase slightly. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern is good, and the market is expected to fluctuate. After the mining end resumes production and consumption weakens, the market may decline [3]. - For single - side trading, short - term range operations are recommended. If the market rebounds significantly, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3].