原油日报：特朗普拒绝对乌克兰提供战斧导弹-20251021

Report Summary Investment Rating - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] Core View - Trump will not provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and tries to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict through diplomatic means. His inconsistent stance on the conflict without substantial pressure on Russia is an uncertainty in the oil market. His attempt to persuade India and Turkey to reduce Russian oil purchases through verbal pressure has limited effect. The future of the Russia-Ukraine situation depends on the outcome of the Putin-Trump meeting [2] Market News and Key Data - On a certain day, the price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2 cents to $57.52 per barrel, a 0.03% decline; the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery in London fell 28 cents to $61.01 per barrel, a 0.46% decline; the main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.16% at 438 yuan per barrel [1] - The European Council announced that EU member states' energy ministers approved a proposal to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028. The EU will gradually stop importing Russian natural gas under new contracts from January 2026, existing short-term contracts will end in June 2026, and long-term contracts will end in January 2028 [1] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange approved an increase in the available storage capacity of Dalian Northern Oil Products Storage Co., Ltd. from 100,000 cubic meters to 200,000 cubic meters [1] - Colombia recalled its ambassador to the US after Trump accused Colombian President Petro of condoning drug production, announced a suspension of all subsidies to Colombia, and planned to impose additional tariffs. Colombia's foreign ministry condemned Trump's remarks as a threat to its national sovereignty [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine's natural gas infrastructure was severely damaged by Russian attacks. Ukraine may import about $2 billion worth of natural gas this winter from Europe, the US, and Azerbaijan. In the future, Ukraine may cooperate with US companies to build its own LNG receiving terminals [1] Strategy - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black swan events occur [4] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large-scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [4]