新能源及有色金属日报：锌价存反弹可能-20251021

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices may face pressure due to increasing supply and potential disappointment in consumption during the peak season, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $136.85/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 21,870 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 21,820 yuan/ton, with a premium of -100 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,870 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On October 20, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,885 yuan/ton and closed at 21,855 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 86,404 lots, and the position was 65,610 lots. The highest price was 21,945 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,820 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,325 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - There is restocking in the spot market as zinc prices fall, but social inventories are increasing and may exceed the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the upward trend of TC is expected to continue. Supply pressure is prominent, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]