新能源及有色金属日报：散单成交尚可，铅价高位震荡-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Although terminal consumption has slightly rebounded under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth highlights. On the supply side, the processing fees for lead ore remain low, and the supply of waste batteries in some areas is also tight. As a result, the lead price is currently in a range-bound pattern, with an expected trading range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On October 20, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.85/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On October 20, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,075 yuan/ton and closed at 17,060 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 27,656 lots, a decrease of 11,986 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 38,195 lots, a decrease of 2,023 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated between 17,055 - 17,155 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,130 yuan/ton and closed at 17,200 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 20, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 38,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 20, the LME lead inventory was 247,300 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy Overall Strategy - Maintain a neutral view on the lead market, expecting the lead price to fluctuate between 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] Option Strategy - Recommend selling a wide strangle [4]