贵金属日报：美国政府停摆有望结束，贵金属价格企稳回升-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to end, and precious metal prices have stabilized and rebounded. With the realization of profit-taking sentiment in gold prices last week and the unchanged medium- to long-term bullish logic, gold prices are expected to be mainly in a volatile and bullish pattern in the near term. Silver shares the same macro bullish logic as gold, and its price is also expected to maintain a volatile and bullish pattern [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett believes the government shutdown may end this week. If not, the White House will consider stronger measures. U.S. President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Albanese signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals. The U.S. and Australian governments plan to jointly invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next 6 months, with estimated recoverable resource value of $53 billion. The Pentagon will invest in building a gallium processing plant in Western Australia with an annual capacity of 100 tons [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On October 20, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 989.70 yuan/gram and closed at 970.32 yuan/gram, a change of -2.95% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 990.00 yuan/gram and closed at 998.58 yuan/gram, up 2.91% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 12,057.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,742.00 yuan/kg, a change of -4.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,455,760 lots, and the open interest was 432,663 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,982 yuan/kg and closed at 11,973 yuan/kg, up 1.97% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 20, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.978%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.52%, a change of -0.62 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by -65 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -19 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 991,846 lots, a change of 41.62% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 3,700,983 lots, a change of 20.75% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,047.21 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,497 tons, a decrease of 74 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 20, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 22.46 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -753.22 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 82.64, a change of 1.49% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 80.19, a change of 0.62% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (October 20, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 71,850 kg, a change of -3.43% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,658,292 kg, a change of 6.28% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 18,586 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 139,020 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The Au2512 contract's trading range may be between 970 yuan/gram and 1,020 yuan/gram. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The Ag2512 contract's trading range may be between 11,700 yuan/kg and 12,200 yuan/kg. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels. - Options: On hold [8][9].