PVC出口仍保持韧性

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - PVC exports remain resilient, with September exports reaching 346,400 tons, a 21.94% month - on - month increase and a 24.53% year - on - year increase. Cumulative exports are 2.9215 million tons, a 50.58% year - on - year increase. However, PVC exports of products may be affected by India's anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers [3] - The PVC futures price is under pressure due to high inventory of futures warrants, but it may rebound with macro - sentiment after a decline. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies and the National Politburo meeting [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with both increases and decreases. The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand side has mixed signals. The cost support exists due to the increase in Shandong's electricity price in October and the rise in liquid chlorine price [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,702 yuan/ton (+14). The East China basis is - 72 yuan/ton (-14), and the South China basis is - 2 yuan/ton (-14) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 4,630 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 4,700 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 12 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method gross profit is - 713 yuan/ton (-91), the PVC ethylene method gross profit is - 553 yuan/ton (-14), and the PVC export profit is - 0.6 dollars/ton (-3.8) [1] - Inventory and start - up: The PVC in - plant inventory is 360,000 tons (-23,000), the PVC social inventory is 556,000 tons (-1,000), the PVC calcium carbide method start - up rate is 74.73% (-7.03%), the PVC ethylene method start - up rate is 76.10% (-2.44%), and the PVC start - up rate is 75.14% (-5.66%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 556,000 tons (-28,000) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,380 yuan/ton (+36), and the Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis is 183 yuan/ton (-67) [1] - Spot price: The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quotation is 820 yuan/ton (-10), and the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quotation is 1,280 yuan/ton (-10) [1] - Upstream production profit: The Shandong caustic soda single - variety profit is 1,571 yuan/ton (-31), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 988.3 yuan/ton (+48.8), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) is 226.28 yuan/ton (-31.25), and the Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) is 1,241.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 403,300 tons (-17,900), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 24,500 tons (+3,400), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 81.40% (-2.90%) [2] - Downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 86.22% (-0.10%), the East China printing and dyeing start - up rate is 66.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 88.61% (-1.02%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises have resumed, and new production capacities are gradually being put into production. The supply is abundant [3] - Demand: The downstream start - up has generally returned to the pre - holiday level, and the point - price transactions have improved when the price falls. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute value of inventory is still high [3] - Export: The export shows resilience, but the export of PVC products may be affected by India's anti - dumping investigation [3] - Futures: The futures warrants are at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the market persists [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: New production capacities have been put into production, and the supply is expected to increase slightly as many maintenance enterprises have resumed [3] - Demand: The Shandong alumina orders are stable, but the Henan large - scale alumina plant's load reduction has increased the expectation of alumina plant production cuts. Non - aluminum end start - up continues to rise, with rigid demand for procurement [3] - Inventory: The national liquid caustic soda inventory decreased last week, and the Shandong inventory decreased due to increased maintenance and procurement by Hebei alumina plants [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - delivery spread: Sell V01 and buy V05 when the spread is high - Inter - commodity spread: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see - Inter - commodity spread: None [5]