尿素日报：尿素9月出口137万吨-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short the spread when the price is high - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot low - price transactions improved, but after some manufacturers slightly raised prices, transactions cooled down and prices were slightly lowered again. Some regions are in the process of autumn fertilization for agriculture, the production of compound fertilizers for autumn is coming to an end, the operating rate is decreasing, and the compound fertilizers needed for winter wheat are mainly for inventory clearance. Due to more autumn rains, the fertilizer demand for winter wheat this year may be postponed to mid - to - late October. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in spot sentiment. The operating rate of melamine has decreased, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose with the release of new production capacity. Currently, inventory accumulation is mainly in Inner Mongolia. In late October, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast gradually start production, and attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast. Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are still export windows. Urea exports in September were 1.37 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. The port has both container gathering and departure. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. A total of 25 suppliers were received, with a total of 3.66 million tons of supply. The lowest CFR price is $402/ton on the west coast and $395/ton on the east coast. Currently, the urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to the subsequent urea export trends [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On October 20, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,600 yuan/ton (-2); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,550 yuan/ton (0); the price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,550 yuan/ton (-10); the price of small - particle urea in Jiangsu was 1,560 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 50 yuan/ton (-8); the basis in Henan was - 50 yuan/ton (+2); the basis in Jiangsu was - 40 yuan/ton (+2) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of October 20, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.67% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.6154 million tons (+171,500 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 446,000 tons (+31,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 20 yuan/ton (-10) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The urea export profit was 983 yuan/ton (+0). India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. A total of 25 suppliers were received, with a total of 3.66 million tons of supply. The lowest CFR price is $402/ton on the west coast and $395/ton on the east coast [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of October 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.18% (-1.32%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.18% (-10.29%); the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.71 days (-0.29) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.6154 million tons (+171,500 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 446,000 tons (+31,000 tons) [1]