化工日报：主港延续累库，EG承压运行-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main port continues to accumulate inventory, and EG is under pressure. The EG main contract closed at 4003 yuan/ton, the EG spot price in the East China market was 4094 yuan/ton, and the EG East China spot basis was 72 yuan/ton. The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -64 US dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -599 yuan/ton. The MEG inventory in the East China main port was 57.9 tons according to CCF and 49.3 tons according to Longzhong, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. On the demand side, due to high tariffs, there is no peak - season effect, and the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand. The EG balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to gradually rise. [2] - For the strategy, for the single - side, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell and hedge at high prices. For the inter - period, conduct an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605. There is no strategy for the inter - variety. [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 4003 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4094 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), with the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) at 72 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -64 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and that of coal - made syngas EG was -599 yuan/ton (down 54 yuan/ton month - on - month). [1] International Price Difference No specific data or analysis content provided. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - High tariffs lead to no peak - season effect, the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 57.9 tons (up 3.8 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (up 5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 10.5 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 5.3 tons, and that at the secondary port is 6.3 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to gradually rise in the fourth quarter. [1][2]