FICC日报：中国9月经济增速回落，内外需分化加剧-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - China's economic growth slowed in September, with a widening gap between domestic and external demand. Domestic economic data in August showed signs of weakness, while exports in September were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. Amid increasing external tariff pressure, China has introduced frequent growth - stabilizing policies [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of tariff escalation before the APEC Summit in South Korea from October 28th to November 1st [2] - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown, as the market has not fully priced in the severity of the issue [3] - In the commodity market, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach in the near term. Each commodity sector has its own characteristics and risks [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and tepid consumption." In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap hit a new low for the year. External tariff pressure increased, and China introduced growth - stabilizing policies. The Third Quarter GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% for the first three quarters. Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year - on - year, while social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3%. Fixed - asset investment continued to decline [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated. The delay in Sino - US tariff implementation will expire on November 10th. The US has taken a series of measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing tariffs on imports, and China has responded with counter - measures. There is a risk of tariff escalation before the APEC Summit in South Korea [2] - The US government shutdown issue persists. The Republican temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate, and economic data releases have been delayed. The market has not fully priced in the severity of the shutdown [3] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations; the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints but is boosted by global easing expectations; the energy sector has a relatively loose medium - term supply; the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention; agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals; precious metals have short - term price volatility risks but long - term buying opportunities [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Key News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing. The central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged. China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and 4.8% in the third quarter. Social consumer goods retail总额 in September increased by 3% year - on - year. The national urban survey unemployment rate in September was 5.2%. The stock market showed mixed trends, with coal and gas sectors rising and precious metals sector falling. Sino - US officials agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations soon. The US will impose tariffs on trucks and buses starting from November 1st. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party reached an agreement on coalition government [6]