聚丙烯日报：成本端支撑有限，丙烯价格跌至年内低位-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The propylene price has dropped to a new low for the year, with its supply increasing due to the restart and capacity increase of PDH units and the shutdown of some new devices. The demand is weak as downstream customers are cautious in stocking up and overall downstream开工率 has declined. The cost side, affected by factors such as weak oil demand and propane price trends, does not strongly support the propylene price. The propylene market is in a loose supply - demand pattern with limited upward drive, but the downside space is also limited at the current low - price stage [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure involves data including the propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][9][11]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Information on production profit and operating rate includes the difference between Chinese CFR propylene and Japanese CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [18][26][28]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import and export profit data includes the differences between South Korean FOB and Chinese CFR, Japanese CFR and Chinese CFR, Southeast Asian CFR and Chinese CFR, and propylene import profit [35][37]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Downstream profit and operating rate data cover PP powder production profit and operating rate, propylene oxide production profit and operating rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [43][45][48]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory data includes propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68]. Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The main contract closing price is 6026 yuan/ton (+19), the East China spot price is 6075 yuan/ton (-90), the North China spot price is 6010 yuan/ton (-150), the East China basis is 49 yuan/ton (-109), the North China basis is - 16 yuan/ton (-169), the operating rate is 74% (-1%), the difference between Chinese CFR propylene and Japanese CFR naphtha is 238 US dollars/ton (+9), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 143 US dollars/ton (+4), the import profit is - 436 yuan/ton (-25), and the in - plant inventory is 41490 tons (-1900) [1]. - Propylene downstream: PP powder operating rate is 39% (-1.31%), production profit is 40 yuan/ton (+70); propylene oxide operating rate is 68% (-4%), production profit is - 51 yuan/ton (-33); n - butanol operating rate is 90% (+2%), production profit is 12 yuan/ton (-7); octanol operating rate is 92% (-4%), production profit is - 71 yuan/ton (-171); acrylic acid operating rate is 75% (-8%), production profit is 1187 yuan/ton (+14); acrylonitrile operating rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is - 466 yuan/ton (+156); phenol - acetone operating rate is 78% (+0%), production profit is - 600 yuan/ton (+25) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of PDH units [3]. - Inter - period: Consider a reverse spread for PL01 - 02 at high prices [3]. - Inter - commodity: No strategy provided [3].