股指早报：美政府停摆将于本周结束，国内等待十五五规划指引-20251021

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US government shutdown may end this week, which will boost market risk appetite to some extent. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates next week with a probability of over 90% and continue to cut rates in December. Overnight, risk assets were boosted by the expected end of the government shutdown and Trump's remarks on trade negotiations. [2] - In the domestic A - share market, on Monday, the market showed a weak recovery trend with a shrinking volume. The market seems to be waiting for the release of the 14th Five - Year Plan. In the medium term, the stock index still has upward potential based on fundamental improvement and policy support. In the short term, it is expected to continue to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the market style tends to be balanced. [3] 3. Summaries by Directory Important Information - The US and Australia signed a critical minerals agreement, and Trump said there would be an abundance of rare earths and critical minerals. [5] - The White House stated that Australian pension fund investment in the US will increase by about $1 trillion in the next decade. [6] - White House official Hassett said the government shutdown may end this week; if not, the White House will consider taking stronger measures. [6] - Concerns about bond violations triggered a panic in the Vietnamese market, and the stock index recorded its largest decline since April. [7] - China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. [8] - The Ministry of Finance decided to conduct treasury bond market - making support operations in October 2025. [9] - The new loan prime rate remained unchanged, with the one - year and five - year LPRs staying the same. [9] - In September, the prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month. [10] Futures Market Tracking - Index Futures Performance: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.24%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.53%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.76%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.75%. Among the futures contracts, most showed fluctuations, with some contracts rising and some falling. For example, IH2511 in the Shanghai Composite 50 futures fell 0.37%, IF2511 in the CSI 300 futures fell 0.44%, IC2511 in the CSI 500 futures fell 1.30%, and IM2511 in the CSI 1000 futures fell 1.28%. [13] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Overall, trading volume and open interest decreased in most varieties. For example, the total trading volume of all varieties decreased by 193,934 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 16,919 lots. [14] Spot Market Tracking - Market Index Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.24%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.53%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.76%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.75%. [36] - Industry Performance: Industries such as communication, coal, power equipment, and machinery had the highest gains, while non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, beauty care, and food and beverage had the largest declines. [3] - Market Style Influence: Different market styles had different impacts on various indexes. For example, the cyclical style had a relatively large daily contribution to the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, while the financial style had a certain impact on the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indexes. [37][38] Liquidity Tracking - The report provides figures on central bank open - market operations, including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection, as well as the Shibor interest rate level, but no specific analysis is given. [53][54][55]