9月经济数据点评：基数上升拖累GDP同比，4季度仍有政策支撑

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% YoY, down from 5.2% in Q2, impacted by a high base effect from last year[1] - Nominal GDP growth in Q3 was 3.7%, further declining from 3.9% in Q2, marking a new low for 2023[1] - Q3 GDP deflator decreased by 1%, a smaller decline compared to the 0.2 percentage points drop in Q2[1] Industrial Production - In September, industrial value-added increased by 6.5% YoY, significantly up from 5.2% in August[2] - Seasonally adjusted MoM growth in industrial production reached 0.64%, the highest since March[2] - Automotive manufacturing value-added surged by 16% YoY, improving by 7.6 percentage points from August[2] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales growth fell to 3% YoY in September, down from 3.4% in August[2] - Consumer confidence index rose to 89.2, continuing an upward trend since Q4 of last year[3] - Per capita disposable income grew by 4.5% YoY, while per capita consumption expenditure increased by 3.4%, both lower than Q2 growth rates[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment declined by 7.1% YoY in September, consistent with August's decline[3] - Infrastructure investment dropped by 8%, while real estate development investment fell by 21.3%, widening the decline from the previous month[3] - Cumulative fixed asset investment for the first three quarters showed a 0.5% YoY decrease, indicating negative growth[3] Real Estate Market - In September, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 10.5% YoY, close to August's decline[3] - New residential prices in 70 large and medium cities fell by 0.4% MoM, a larger drop than in August[3] - Overall, real estate demand remains weak, with sales revenue down by 11.8% YoY[3]