新能源及有色金属日报：下游刚需采购为主，铜价暂陷震荡格局-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: short put@81000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - Previously, due to favorable macro - factors, the strengthening of precious metal prices, and frequent interference events at overseas mines, copper prices rose. Now, with the temporary decline of precious metal prices and smelters seeking to break the low processing fees, if the TC price rebounds, it may suppress copper prices. The copper price is currently treated with a neutral view, and the expected price range next week is between 81,600 yuan/ton and 86,600 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 84,660 yuan/ton and closed at 85,380 yuan/ton, a 1.17% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 85,220 yuan/ton and closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, a 0.34% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 10 - 110 yuan/ton, with an average of 60 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The price range of electrolytic copper was 85,270 - 85,990 yuan/ton. The market trading sentiment was still weak. High copper prices restricted downstream purchasing willingness, and it is expected that today's purchases will be mainly for rigid demand [2] Important Information Summary - The White House may take stronger measures to end the government shutdown. The US and Australia will jointly invest over $3 billion in key mineral projects in the next 6 months, with estimated recoverable resource value of $53 billion. The Pentagon will invest in a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [3] Supply - side Information Mine End - Ontario plans to halve the mine approval time. China's copper ore and concentrate imports in September 2025 were 2,586,873.52 tons, a 6.24% month - on - month decrease and a 6.43% year - on - year increase. Imports from Chile decreased, while those from Peru increased [4] Smelting and Import - China's scrap copper imports in September 2025 were 184,079.92 tons, a 2.67% month - on - month increase and a 14.84% year - on - year increase. Japan and Thailand were the main import sources [5] Demand - side Information - China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products in September 2025 were 95,869 tons, a 26.0% year - on - year increase. The operating rates of domestic refined copper rods and copper cables rebounded but were still lower than before the holiday. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream demand, and most companies adopted a rigid - demand procurement strategy [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 137,175 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,530 tons to 41,319 tons. On October 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 186,600 tons, an increase of 9,100 tons from the previous week [6] Price and Basis Data | Project | Today (2025 - 10 - 21) | Yesterday (2025 - 10 - 20) | Last Week (2025 - 10 - 14) | One Month (2025 - 09 - 21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 copper (premium/discount) | 60 | 55 | 80 | 70 | | Premium copper (premium) | 95 | 95 | 150 | 115 | | Flat - water copper (premium) | 35 | 30 | 45 | 30 | | Wet - process copper (premium) | - 35 | - 40 | - 45 | - 30 | | Yangshan premium | 50 | 50 | 53 | 59 | | LME (0 - 3) | - 17 | - 11 | - 31 | - 71 | | LME inventory | 137,175 | 137,225 | 139,350 | 148,875 | | SHFE inventory | 110,240 | - | 109,690 | - | | COMEX inventory | 313,506 | 312,663 | 308,012 | 283,805 | | SHFE warehouse receipts | 41,319 | 42,849 | 32,890 | 31,838 | | LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio | 5.70% | 5.49% | 5.99% | 9.65% | | CU2602 - CU2511 (continuous three - near month) | - 90 | - 140 | 80 | - 50 | | CU2512 - CU2511 (main - near month) | 0 | 0 | 120 | 0 | | CU12/AL12 | 4.08 | 4.04 | 4.08 | 3.84 | | CU12/ZN12 | 3.91 | 3.87 | 3.82 | 3.62 | | Import profit | - 628 | - 686 | - 840 | 4 | [26][27][28]