Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - The international oil price declined overnight, with the Brent December contract down 0.65%. Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation speed has accelerated, with a 1.5% increase since the fourth quarter. The medium - term trend of the crude oil market remains under pressure, but the short - term downward momentum is weakening, and the market may turn to a weak oscillation [2]. Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded overnight. With multiple issues in negotiation, the medium - long - term upward logic of gold and silver is solid, but short - term two - way fluctuation risks have increased. It is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see [3]. Copper - Copper prices oscillated higher overnight. Although the enthusiasm for allocating to the copper market is high, the domestic copper market shows "weak supply and demand" at high prices, and the social inventory continues to rise. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [4]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate overnight. Since August, the apparent consumption of the aluminum market has been basically flat year - on - year. The inventory performance since the National Day is neutral, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will continue to oscillate and test the previous high resistance [5]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remains at 20,600 yuan. With tight scrap aluminum supply and increased enterprise costs, but high industry inventory, it continues to follow the aluminum price [6]. Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. Supply is in obvious surplus, and the spot index continues to decline. Alumina is mainly in a weak operation [7]. Zinc - The SMM zinc social inventory rose to 165,300 tons on Monday. The Shanghai zinc is under pressure and fell with heavy volume, but it has strong support at around 21,500 yuan/ton. The LME zinc is under obvious pressure at the 3,000 - dollar integer mark. The domestic and foreign price difference may converge periodically, and the zinc ingot export is the general direction [8]. Lead - Shanghai lead is in a stalemate between long and short positions. The inventory is low, and the overall inventory accumulation is less than expected. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, but the inflow of overseas low - price crude lead is expected to strengthen. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuates narrowly. The downstream demand recovery in the peak consumption season is limited, and the social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening. Technically, Shanghai nickel is weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [10]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated higher overnight, mainly following the trading rhythm of the copper market. The supply of the global tin market is gradually stabilizing, and the trading center is expected to oscillate downward. The previous short - selling strategy is continued [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened high and then oscillated, and the market trading warmed up. The total market inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 132,700 tons. Technically, the futures price of lithium carbonate oscillates and waits for a clear direction [12]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures fell back with a significant reduction in positions, mainly due to the significant cooling of policy expectations. The spot price is stable, and the inventory accumulation risk continues under high inventory. The market maintains an oscillating trend [13]. Industrial Silicon - The Xinjiang operating rate of industrial silicon has reached the highest point of the year, and the downstream demand is basically stable. The weekly social inventory has increased marginally, and the spot price is slightly under pressure. After the electricity price rises in November, the production reduction in the southwest is highly certain [14]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Steel prices oscillated at night. The apparent demand for ribbed bars rebounded significantly month - on - month but remained weak year - on - year. The iron and steel industry's negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly. The steel price is expected to be volatile in the short term [15]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated weakly overnight, and the basis has strengthened recently. The supply has increased, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to oscillate at high levels [15]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated strongly during the day. The second round of price increase for coking has started. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price may be more likely to rise than to fall [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated strongly during the day. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly month - on - month. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose and then fell during the day. The demand side maintains a high level of hot metal production. The output of silicomanganese remains at a relatively high level, and the inventory has decreased slightly [18]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated during the day. The demand is generally good, and the supply remains at a high level, with the on - balance - sheet inventory continuously decreasing [19]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The market's expectation of shipping companies' price increase is strengthening, and the trading core is shifting from weak reality to strong expectation. The 12 and 02 contracts are expected to run bullishly, but the upside space is limited [20]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side in a weak oscillating trend. The high - sulfur fuel oil has some support in the near - term, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - term. The low - sulfur fuel oil is weak in the short - term, and the demand may improve marginally in the medium - term [21]. Asphalt - The weekly asphalt operating rate declined month - on - month. The demand in October is expected to be weaker than expected. The asphalt market remains in a tight - balance pattern in the short - term, and the price has support at the bottom [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG main contract continued to oscillate narrowly, and the far - month contracts are relatively under pressure. The supply increased slightly this week, and the inventory at refineries and ports decreased [23]. Urea - The urea main contract continued to oscillate narrowly. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, but the price has limited room to continue to decline [24]. Methanol - The import supply of methanol in coastal areas may slow down. The domestic methanol operating load remains high, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. The methanol port market may oscillate within a range in the short - term [24]. Pure Benzene - The pure benzene price continued to fall overnight. The weekly production decreased, and the port inventory increased. The medium - term absolute price depends on the oil price and the performance of the external market [25]. Styrene - The cost - side support for styrene continues to decline. The supply - demand situation has improved slightly in the short - term, but the price continues to decline [26]. Polypropylene, Polyethylene, and Propylene - Propylene prices have fallen to a new low for the year, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. The polyethylene market has limited actual transactions. The polypropylene supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices fluctuated narrowly during the day. The supply is under high pressure, and the demand is stable. The PVC may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda prices oscillated narrowly, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling [28]. PX and PTA - PX supply is expected to contract temporarily, and PTA supply is expected to increase. The terminal demand is expected to weaken. The prices of PX and PTA continue to be weak, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory [29]. Ethylene Glycol - The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has slightly declined, and the port inventory has continued to increase. The ethylene glycol price has broken through the support level and fallen. The short - term market lacks positive factors [30]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade PET - Short - fiber has new production capacity, and the inventory has decreased weekly. It is recommended to be long - biased. The bottle - grade PET processing margin has improved, but the demand is expected to weaken [31]. Glass - Glass prices continued to decline. The glass factory inventory continues to increase, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The decline amplitude is expected to be limited [32]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price fell, and the Thai raw material market prices mostly rose. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - production period. The post - holiday demand has recovered, but the supply pressure is large [33]. Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices continued to decline. The supply is still under high pressure, and the downstream demand growth is limited. It is recommended to short after a rebound [34]. Group 2: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The sales progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, but US soybean crushing has increased. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but it may be tight in the first quarter of next year if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates. In a high - supply and high - inventory pattern, the soybean meal is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [35]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The market sentiment has turned optimistic. The US soybean export demand is uncertain. The palm oil market has resilience. It is expected that oils are stronger than meals, and it is recommended to go long on oils at low prices [36]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed has extremely low inventory and low operating rates. The supply side of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has a strong willingness to support prices. It is recommended to take a short - long strategy and pay attention to the marginal changes in the economic and trade relationship [37]. Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans showed a strong upward trend and continued to oscillate and rebound. The short - term US soybean market sentiment is optimistic, but the export demand is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to the acquisition performance and policy guidance [38]. Corn - The autumn harvest progress of corn in the Huanghuai region is slow. The supply of corn is expected to remain loose, and the Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [39]. Hogs - The hog spot price rebounded after reaching a phased bottom. The supply pressure will still be large in the later stage. It is expected that the hog price may have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [40]. Eggs - After the post - National Day replenishment, the supply pressure has returned to the dominant position. The egg futures market shows a bearish trend [41]. Cotton - The US cotton demand may be weak. The Brazilian cotton production is expected to be high. The domestic Xinjiang cotton acquisition is in progress, and the demand is average. The short - term Zhengzhou cotton may oscillate [42]. Sugar - The international sugar supply is relatively sufficient, and the US sugar faces upward pressure. The domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the production expectation in Guangxi is relatively good [43]. Apples - Apple futures prices rose with increased positions. The market is mainly concerned about the cold - storage inventory. The apple production may be lower than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. Wood - Wood futures prices oscillated. The domestic supply is expected to remain low, and the demand in the peak season supports the price. It is recommended to take a long - biased strategy [45]. Pulp - Pulp futures prices rose slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is average. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp gives some support to softwood pulp. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 3: Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market oscillated with reduced volume, and the ChiNext Index led the rise. The futures index contracts all closed up. The market style may rotate in the short - term, and it is recommended to focus on the science and technology growth sector in the medium - term [47]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures oscillated. The Sino - US negotiation has not reached an agreement in the short - term. The bond market will gradually enter a repair stage, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [48].
综合晨报-20251021
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-21 02:40