煤焦：盘面区间震荡，关注宏观预期变化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term supply of coal and coke increases while demand decreases, but both are at relatively high levels, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent; market sentiment is easily disturbed by macro - factor changes, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [3] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke rose first and then fell, and the night - session prices weakened further, with relatively sharp fluctuations in coking coal. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, and some coke enterprises in certain regions have sent letters for the second round of coke price increases [2] Fundamental Analysis - The output of clean coal has been continuously rising. Last week, the daily average output of clean coal was 779,000 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons compared with the previous week. The mine end also had a slight inventory increase, but due to downstream inventory replenishment before the festival, the current mine - end inventory level is low. After the festival, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has steadily recovered, with a current daily average of 155,000 tons. The change in Mongolian coal imports needs continuous attention [2] - Last week, the profitability of coke enterprises shrank, which supported their confidence in price - holding. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 74%. However, the inventory pressure of downstream steel products still exists, especially the inventory of sheet metal has been continuously rising. Last week, some steel enterprises in certain regions issued notices simultaneously, indicating that due to the increase in raw material prices and the decrease in finished - product prices, steel mill profits were in the red. Last week, the daily average pig - iron output dropped to 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons compared with the previous week; the overall profitability rate of steel mills was about 55% [3] Later Concerns - Pay attention to changes in the blast - furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines [3]