Workflow
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251021
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-10-21 02:38

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with inventory slightly decreasing [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - The US government shutdown has lasted 20 days, delaying key economic data release and creating a data vacuum before the Fed's policy meeting [2] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level. Shanxi reduced production by 400,000 tons due to rainy - season supply issues, but there is still an oversupply. Some high - cost enterprises are in the red, but the industry as a whole still has a profit margin. The spot market is in a state of loose supply, and the alumina price is expected to remain weak [3] - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, cable, and profile have different operating rate trends and face various challenges [3] - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [3]