申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20251021

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold has become the dominant long - term narrative as the ultimate safe - haven asset, with its rising speed and intensity increasing due to factors such as the US fiscal deficit, deteriorating debt situation, global confrontation, and central banks' continuous gold purchases. Silver's spot supply - demand contradiction is further highlighted, but after a rapid rise, there may be adjustments and increased volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For futures, the prices of沪金2606,沪金2512,沪银2606, and沪银2512 all increased, with涨跌幅 of 2.86%, 2.91%, 1.93%, and 1.97% respectively. In the现货 market, the prices of London gold and London silver increased, while the prices of Shanghai gold T + D and Shanghai silver T + D decreased [2]. - Positions and Volumes: The持仓量 of沪金2606 is 22,015, and that of沪金2512 is 207,916; the持仓量 of沪银2606 is 27,319, and that of沪银2512 is 432,663. The成交量 of沪金2606 is 15,617, and that of沪金2512 is 728,228; the成交量 of沪银2606 is 33,301, and that of沪银2512 is 2,455,760 [2]. - Spot Premiums: The现货升贴水 of沪金2606 is - 31.30, that of沪金2512 is - 24.88, that of沪银2606 is - 238.00, and that of沪银2512 is - 194.00 [2]. Inventory - The上期所 gold inventory remains unchanged at 84,606 kg, while the上期所 silver inventory decreased by 64,253.00 kg. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 75,206.36, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 2,991,703 [2]. Related Market Indicators - The美元指数 increased by 0.07%, the标准普尔指数 increased by 1.07%, the美债 yield decreased by 0.50%, the布伦特原油 price decreased by 0.01%, and the美元兑人民币 exchange rate decreased by 0.04% [2]. Derivatives - The spdr gold ETF持仓 increased by 1.00 tons, the SLV白银ETF持仓 increased by 1.00 tons, the CFTC投机者净持仓 of silver increased by 481, and the CFTC投机者净持仓 of gold decreased by 1,451 [2]. Macroeconomic Information - The US and China are about to return to the negotiation table. The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as issues to be raised with China. China advocates resolving issues through negotiation on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [3]. - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next six months, with an estimated recoverable resource value of $53 billion. The Pentagon will invest in building a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [3]. - The White House National Economic Council Director said that the government shutdown may end this week, and if not, stronger measures may be taken [3].