20251021申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251021

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are likely to be strong at night. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment continues to grow positively, while power source investment slows down. Automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is declining, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mining accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long term [2] - Zinc prices rose at night. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is declining, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Zinc supply - demand differences are not obvious overall, but it will follow copper prices in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Market performance: Night - time copper prices closed higher. The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 85,380 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 10,713 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 23.35 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 137,225 tons with a daily decrease of 225 tons [2] - Supply and demand: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output is growing, grid investment is positive, power source investment is slowing, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance production is negative, and real estate is weak. The Indonesian mining accident may cause a supply - demand gap [2] - Outlook: Likely to be strong. Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Zinc - Market performance: Night - time zinc prices closed higher. The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 21,855 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 2,976 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was 230.29 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 38,025 tons with a daily decrease of 275 tons [2] - Supply and demand: Short - term processing fees are rising, smelting output is expected to increase, galvanized sheet inventory is increasing, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance production is negative, and real estate is weak [2] - Outlook: Follow copper price trends. Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,890 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 2,767 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was 5.20 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 491,225 tons with a daily decrease of 4,100 tons [2] - Nickel: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 120,710 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 15,230 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 204.88 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 250,530 tons with a daily increase of 186 tons [2] - Lead: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 17,060 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 1,994 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 41.78 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 250,400 tons with a daily decrease of 1,600 tons [2] - Tin: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 279,340 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 35,300 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 112.00 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 2,735 tons with a daily increase of 160 tons [2]