金点策略晨报：缩量回稳，短线调整压力缓解-20251021

Overall Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback last Friday, returning to the low opening levels of October 13, but rebounded on Monday, alleviating short-term adjustment pressure [1][7] - Since late August, the upward momentum of the A-share market has weakened, with high valuation stocks seeing reduced trading activity, while low valuation sectors have stabilized, mitigating potential volatility risks from high valuation adjustments [1][7] - External uncertainties continue to impact investor sentiment, but recent positive news regarding Sino-US trade negotiations may help improve market concerns [1][7] Economic Indicators - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP growth rate for the third quarter was 4.8%, showing resilience despite a slight slowdown [2][8] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and developing new productive forces are expected to play a major role in future economic strategies, with a focus on balancing supply and demand to alleviate deflationary pressures [2][8] - The People's Bank of China announced that the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating a stable short-term outlook for bank stocks [2][8] Sector Performance - The telecommunications sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 55.36%, driven by developments in artificial intelligence and domestic adjustments in chip supply due to export controls from developed countries [5] - The coal sector has also strengthened, with a year-to-date increase of 3.23% and a recent 20-day increase of 13.46%, benefiting from supply constraints and seasonal demand as winter approaches [6] - Overall, the market showed more gainers than losers, with significant trading volumes across various indices, indicating a recovery in market enthusiasm [4] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its bullish trend with potential fluctuations, as the A-share market's structural high valuation risks remain, but low valuation sectors are stabilizing [7][8] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and narrowing domestic and international interest rate differentials may lead to a trend of RMB appreciation, attracting international capital to increase allocations in Chinese assets [8][9] - It is recommended to focus on cyclical sectors benefiting from anti-involution measures and undervalued bank stocks in the near term [8][9]