9月和三季度经济数据点评：稳增长政策转向长期视角

Economic Growth and GDP - The actual GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, exceeding the annual target of 5.0%[4] - The GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 is 4.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from Q2 2025[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 is 3.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from Q2 2025[4] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in September increased by 6.5%, surpassing the consensus expectation of 5.23%[10] - The cumulative industrial added value growth for the mining industry from January to September is 5.8%, while manufacturing and high-tech industries show growth rates of 6.8% and 9.6%, respectively[12] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to September, fixed asset investment fell by 0.5%, with private investment declining by 3.1%[25] - Real estate investment dropped by 13.9% during the same period, with new construction area down 18.9%[31] Consumer Spending - Retail sales in September grew by 3.0%, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline[15] - Cumulative retail sales from January to September showed a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with significant declines in categories like petroleum products and beverages[20] Policy and Future Outlook - The government has introduced a fourth batch of "national subsidies" amounting to 69 billion yuan and has set a new local government debt limit of 500 billion yuan for 2026[1] - The macroeconomic policy adjustments will focus on achieving high-quality growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan and addressing external uncertainties[44]