新能源产业链月度策略-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is experiencing strong supply and demand. After the holiday, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment has exceeded market expectations, and the market volatility has increased. From a seasonal perspective, downstream demand may experience a seasonal decline around the Spring Festival. Both upstream and downstream enterprises should seize the opportunity to conduct futures and options hedging according to their risk management needs [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to remain at a high level. Although the short - term demand is fair during the traditional peak season in October, the supply pressure in the polysilicon industry is significant, and future production reduction is expected. The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - In the polysilicon market, the high profit has driven high production enthusiasm, but the terminal demand is weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. With the possible implementation of photovoltaic capacity control policies, the market shows a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - Carbonate Lithium: The market is characterized by strong supply and demand but a weakening atmosphere. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 78,000 - 80,000. It is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner. Upstream enterprises should seize the opportunity to conduct selling hedging when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to stocking up at low prices or conducting buying hedging [15]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is under pressure. However, there is certain policy support at the lower price. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300. It is expected to oscillate within a range. Currently, an interval long - position strategy can be considered [15]. - Polysilicon: The fundamental pressure has led to a significant decline in the futures price. Before the implementation of capacity control policies, the market may fluctuate. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. Previous long positions are recommended to be closed, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered in the future [15]. - Arbitrage Recommendation: There are currently no good arbitrage opportunities [16]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 75,700 | 0.00% | 169,108 | 138,434 | - 20,566 | 30,705 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,565 | 1.60% | 190,332 | 114,236 | - 17,557 | 49,303 | | Polysilicon | 50,340 | - 3.66% | 150,772 | 56,806 | - 11,421 | 9,150 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium reached 21,066 tons, a 431 - ton increase from the previous week, hitting a new weekly high. All lithium - extraction processes showed an upward trend. The total sample inventory was 132,658 tons, a 2,143 - ton decrease from the previous week, with an accelerating de - stocking speed, but the inventory remained at a high level. The downstream inventory decreased slightly [4]. - Downstream Situation: The weekly apparent demand for lithium salts reached 23,209 tons, hitting a new weekly high [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: With the arrival of the flat - water period, electricity prices in some south - western regions have increased, and some factories have shut down furnaces. There are signs of复产 in the north - western region, and the overall supply is expected to remain high [6]. - Downstream Situation: During the traditional peak season in October, the short - term demand is fair. However, the polysilicon industry is facing significant supply pressure, and future production reduction is expected [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: Driven by high profits, enterprises are highly motivated to produce, and the production in October is expected to exceed expectations. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating significantly [8]. - Downstream Situation: The National Energy Administration announced that the new photovoltaic installed capacity in August was only 7.36GW, a new low for the year. Downstream production cuts are being gradually implemented [8].