黑色金属数据日报-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is weakly stable with prices remaining unchanged on Monday, dominated by rigid - demand purchases, while speculative demand and trading are light. The market's focus may shift to domestic important meetings, but the possibility of major policies in the short - term is low. The pricing weight of the market is increasing. Steel inventories are back to last year's level, but some varieties have serious inventories. The demand lacks explosive power, and the cost shows a structural differentiation [2]. - The improvement in steel demand provides some support for the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The rising coal price due to northern heating raises the cost of steel and double - silicon, limiting the downward price space. However, the over - supply pattern of double - silicon continues, suppressing the upward price space [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The spot trading atmosphere is average, and the coking coal auction in the origin has weakened. The supply of coking coal in the Mongolian market is still in short supply. The black - sector internal varieties are difficult to resonate, and the coking coal and coke prices may remain in a shock without new "anti - involution"提法 from domestic major meetings [4]. - There is no obvious driving force for iron ore. The supply is not significantly affected in the short - term. High iron - water production may lead to over - supply in the fourth quarter, and the expected increase in Ximengdu iron ore shipments limits the price ceiling [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Price and Market Conditions: On October 20, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures had different changes. The spot prices of Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou steel remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou steel price decreased by 0.65 yuan/ton. The trading on Monday was mainly for rigid demand, with light speculative demand and trading. The market is waiting for the impact of domestic important meetings [1][2]. - Macro and Industry Analysis: Before the APEC meeting, the Sino - US tariff issue is still uncertain. The market's focus may shift to domestic important meetings, but the possibility of major policies in the short - term is low. The economic growth in the third quarter maintained resilience, and the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is small. The crude steel output has decreased year - on - year in the first three quarters, and the space for administrative production reduction is limited. The steel inventory is back to last year's level, but some varieties have serious inventories. The demand lacks explosive power, and the cost shows a structural differentiation [2]. - Investment Suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see or shock - thinking approach for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long when the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil of the 01 contract is below 150 for inter - market arbitrage. Roll and take profit for spot - futures reverse arbitrage [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Situation: The improvement in steel demand provides some support for the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The rising coal price due to northern heating raises the cost of steel and double - silicon, limiting the downward price space. However, the over - supply pattern of double - silicon continues, suppressing the upward price space [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Market: The steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The spot trading atmosphere in the port's domestic market is average. The coking coal auction in the origin has weakened, with more unsuccessful auctions. The coking coal price in the Mongolian market is supported by the shortage of supply [4]. - Futures Market: On Monday, the futures market first rose and then fell. The carbon element was still strong, while the iron element was weak. After the holiday, the increase in coking coal supply was limited, and the iron - water output remained high. The market expected stricter safety inspections in the main production areas, resulting in a tight supply - demand situation for spot goods. The steel inventory pressure was large, and the inventory reduction speed was slow. The black - sector internal varieties were difficult to resonate, and the coking coal and coke prices were affected by steel. After the price rose on Friday night, it reached a relatively high level. Pay attention to whether domestic major meetings will have new "anti - involution"提法 [4]. - Investment Suggestion: Temporarily wait and see for single - side trading [5]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: In the short - term, the supply data has not been significantly affected. High iron - water production may lead to over - supply in the fourth quarter. The expected increase in Ximengdu iron ore shipments limits the price ceiling [5].