中泰期货晨会纪要-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides a rating table for different commodities, categorizing them as bearish, neutral, or bullish. For example, palm oil, soybeans, and gold are rated bearish; rubber, hot-rolled coils, and rapeseed oil are rated neutral; and rapeseed meal, aluminum, and soybean meal are rated bullish [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as macroeconomic data, trade tensions, and policy changes. The report suggests different trading strategies for various commodities based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [13][15][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee started on October 20. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8%, and industrial production exceeded expectations. The 70 - city housing prices showed a mixed trend, with most cities having a decline in the secondary - housing market and a narrowing year - on - year decline in new - housing prices. The 10 - month LPR remained unchanged. The US and Australia signed a rare - earth and key - mineral agreement, and there are developments in the US government shutdown and international trade tensions [8][9][10]. 3.2 Macro Finance - Stock Index Futures: Consider a strategy of buying on dips and focus on index rotation. Although the market rebounded due to improved risk appetite, trading volume was weak. The macro - economic situation showed a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and it is expected that monetary policy may be further loosened in the fourth quarter [13]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Adopt a strategy of expecting a slow rise and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds. The market was affected by risk - appetite changes and interest - rate cut expectations. The overall economic situation is similar to that of stock index futures, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [15]. 3.3 Black Commodities - Steel and Iron Ore: Steel may experience a shock adjustment, and iron - ore short positions can be reduced on dips. The market is affected by factors such as trade frictions, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is relatively good. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron - ore prices are volatile [17][18]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of production restrictions and safety inspections. The demand from downstream steel mills is relatively strong, but the weak profit of steel mills restricts the upward space [19][20]. - Ferroalloys: Silicon iron is stronger than manganese silicon from the perspective of supply - demand and cost. The reasonable valuation range of the spread between the two is between - 450 and - 250 yuan/ton. There is no recommended unilateral strategy for now [21]. - Soda Ash and Glass: For soda ash, hold a bearish view or take short - term profits. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Soda - ash supply is at a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Glass is affected by the market confidence and the demand in the peak season [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina is expected to continue to decline, and it is advisable to short on rallies when the futures price is at a premium [24]. - Zinc: Hold short positions. Domestic zinc inventories have increased, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and inventory changes [24]. - Lithium Carbonate: It will mainly fluctuate in the short term. Supply is increasing, and demand is relatively strong in the short term. The impact of export controls on short - term demand is limited [26]. - Industrial Silicon: It will fluctuate weakly in a range. Although coal prices provide cost support, the supply - demand situation is weak due to the resumption of production by large enterprises and the expected reduction of production by polysilicon enterprises in the dry season [27]. - Polysilicon: It will continue to fluctuate narrowly in a range. The spot price provides support, and the upper limit depends on the implementation of capacity - merger policies [28]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Cotton: Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The market is affected by trade tensions and the US government shutdown [30]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar supply is abundant, but the cost provides support. Consider a short - rolling strategy or a wait - and - see approach. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus [32][33]. - Eggs: Short near - month contracts on rallies. The supply of eggs is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The process of reducing production capacity is slow [35]. - Apples: The price will fluctuate. The price in the western region is firm, and the market is affected by factors such as the listing volume [37]. - Corn: Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The new - season corn supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure, but low inventory and some purchasing support the price [38]. - Red Dates: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market price is stable, and the consumption is weak, but the opening - price expectation is high [39]. - Pigs: Short the LH2601 contract on rallies. The supply pressure continues, but there are some factors supporting the price at the bottom [39][40]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Hold existing short positions. The supply - demand situation is bearish, with increasing supply and weakening demand. The price may have a small - scale repair before the Sino - US summit [42]. - Fuel Oil: Its price will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by geopolitical risks and macro - economic expectations [44]. - Plastics: It will fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure is large, but the current price is relatively low, so it is advisable to reduce short positions and wait for a rebound to short again [45]. - Rubber: It will mainly fluctuate. Consider a double - selling strategy in the short term. The inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by factors such as raw - material supply and international macro - situation [46]. - Methanol: Adopt a weakly - fluctuating strategy and wait for a rebound to go long in small amounts. The market is affected by factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods [47]. - Caustic Soda: Adopt a fluctuating strategy. The price is affected by factors such as the price of caustic soda and liquid chlorine, and the demand from the alumina industry [48]. - Asphalt: Its price will follow the trend of crude oil. The current demand is in the peak season, and the production and inventory situation is normal [49]. - Polyester Industry Chain: The products in the polyester industry chain will continue to fluctuate weakly. The supply - demand situation of each product is different, but they are all affected by factors such as oil prices and new - device commissioning [50]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: It will be bearish in the long term. Although it is strong in the short term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to weaken [51]. 3.7 Paper and Wood Products - Offset Printing Paper: It will fluctuate weakly. The supply may be excessive due to the resumption of production by Chenming during the off - season [52]. - Paper Pulp: Observe the de - stocking situation at ports and spot transactions. If the spot price is stable, consider going long on the far - month 01 contract [54]. - Logs: The fundamentals are weakly fluctuating. Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips, and focus on downstream demand and freight - related factors [55]. 3.8 Others - Urea: Adopt a fluctuating strategy. Pay attention to the impact of cost factors on futures prices, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [56]. - Synthetic Rubber: It will fluctuate, and be cautious about chasing the rise. The downstream procurement is weak, and the price is under pressure [57].