蛋白数据日报-20251021

Group 1: Report Core View - Due to the uncertainty of Sino-US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply, the market has a pessimistic outlook. However, the current poor domestic soybean purchase profit is expected to affect the pace of ship purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single side. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino-US policies and South American weather in the later stage [8] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Basis Data - On October 20th, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was 105, down 27; in Tianjin, it was 85, down 27; in Rizhao, it was 75, down 7. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 5, down 47 [6] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 89, down 31 [6] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread between the main contracts was 545, down 17 [7] Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased [8] Supply and Demand Data - Supply: Affected by less rainfall in US soybean producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season still has a certain downward adjustment space. The planting of Brazilian soybeans has begun, and as of October 14th, the sowing rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% in the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. China cannot purchase US soybeans, and the source of soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [7][8] - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high substitution ratio. The downstream trading of soybean meal is apparently light, but the提货 is good [8]