国富期货：44上海

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the latest trends in the global agricultural and energy markets, including price fluctuations, supply - demand dynamics, and weather impacts. It also covers macro - economic news and capital flows in the futures market, which can help investors understand the overall market situation and make investment decisions [1][2][3][9][10][11][15][22][24][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market - Brent 12 (ICE) closed at $60.94, down 0.65% from the previous day and up 0.48% overnight. WTI 12 (NYMEX) closed at $56.93, down 0.56% from the previous day and up 0.64% overnight. CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1032.75, up 1.15% from the previous day and up 0.46% overnight [1]. - The US Dollar Index was at 98.61, up 0.08%. The CNY/USD exchange rate was 7.0973, up 0.03% [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - For DCE Palm Oil 2601, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9480, 9320, and 9310 respectively, with basis values of 90, - 70, and - 80, and no change in basis compared to the previous day [3]. - For DCE Soybean Oil 2601, spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8500, 8540, 8620, and 8480 respectively, with basis values of 166, 206, 286, and 146, and basis changes of - 48, 2, - 8, and - 8 respectively [3]. - For DCE Soybean Meal 2601, spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 2920, 2870, 2890, and 2960 respectively, with basis values of 14, - 36, - 16, and 54, and basis changes of - 6, - 36, - 16, and - 36 respectively [3]. 3.3 Production Area Weather - In the US soybean - producing states from October 25 - 29, temperatures and precipitation are generally above normal levels. The Midwest will see a front in the early part of the week, but precipitation will be limited [6][8]. - In Brazil, central areas have continuous showers, which is beneficial for soybean planting. Southern states will be mostly dry before Friday [8]. 3.4 Industry News - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 increased 3.4% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Indonesia may regulate palm oil exports to ensure domestic biodiesel supply, planning to increase to B50 in the second half of 2026 [9]. - Analysts expect the US soybean harvest rate to be 73% and the corn harvest rate to be 59% as of last Sunday [9]. - As of the week ending October 16, 2025, US soybean export inspections were 1,474,354 tons, higher than expected [10]. - As of the week ending October 18, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 21.7% [10]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate reached 24%, and the sowing area of the first - season corn in the central - southern region reached 51% of the planned area [11]. - Brazil exported 3,647,485.15 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of October, with a daily average export volume 31% higher than the same period last year [11]. - In September 2025, the EU 27 + UK's rapeseed and soybean crushing volumes decreased compared to August [11]. - Canada's estimated ending inventory of rapeseed for the 2025/26 season remains at 2.5 million tons [12]. 3.5 Domestic Supply and Demand - On October 20, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 12,200 tons, up 1% from the previous day [15]. - On October 20, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 101,100 tons, with the oil mill operating rate at 66.59%, up 4.06% from the previous day [15]. - As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 575,700 tons, up 5.13% from the previous week; the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.224 million tons, down 3.25% from the previous week [15]. - China's September imports of palm oil decreased year - on - year, while soybean, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil imports showed different trends [16][17][18]. - The national pig - to - grain ratio was 5.22 as of October 15, down 4.40% from October 8 [19]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 20 compared to last Friday [20]. 3.6 Macro News - International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in December is 98.6% [22]. - Argentina signed a $20 billion currency swap agreement with the US Treasury [22]. - The eurozone's seasonally - adjusted current account in August was 11.903 billion euros, down from the previous value [22]. - Domestic News - On October 20, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.0973, up 24 points (CNY depreciation) [24]. - On October 20, the central bank conducted 189 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [24]. - China's GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters, and the GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8% [24]. - The central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [24]. - As of October 9, 2025, the total capital in China's futures market exceeded 2 trillion yuan, up 24% from the end of 2024 [24]. 3.7 Capital Flows On October 20, 2025, the futures market saw a net capital outflow of 16.146 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 7.775 billion yuan from the commodity futures market, 7.754 billion yuan from the stock index futures market, and 668 million yuan from the bond futures market [27].