Soochow Securities·2025-10-21 03:32Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [79]. Core Viewpoints - The bus industry is poised to become a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to replicate the scale of the Chinese market within 3-5 years [2]. - The domestic price war in the bus market has ended, which is expected to lead to a recovery in demand driven by tourism and public transport renewal needs, potentially returning to 2019 levels [2]. - The report recommends focusing on the bus sector, particularly on companies Yutong and King Long, both of which are expected to show strong growth and profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In September 2025, the overall production of the bus industry in China reached 54,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 21% [9][10]. - The wholesale volume for September was 56,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34% [9][10]. - The terminal sales volume for buses was 57,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 28% [18]. Company Performance - Yutong's projected net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to grow from 4.63 billion to 6.68 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 19%, and 21% respectively [4]. - King Long is anticipated to see a significant turnaround, with net profits projected to rise from 440 million to 830 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 182%, 45%, and 28% [4]. Export Performance - In September 2025, the bus industry exported 5,596 units, with year-on-year growth of 52% [51]. - The export of large and medium buses showed a significant increase, with Yutong and King Long maintaining strong market shares in the export sector [62].