中辉期货今日重点推荐-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Agricultural Products - Beans and Oilseeds: Short - term bearish consolidation for soybean meal and rapeseed meal; short - term oscillation for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil; high - level oscillation for rapeseed oil [1] - Cotton: Uptrend under pressure in the short term, with ICE market expected to maintain range - bound oscillation [1] - Red Dates: Sell on rallies during the new - season jujube harvest [1] - Pork: Sell on rallies for live pigs, with supply pressure remaining high in Q4 [1] 2.2 Market Analysis - Soybean Meal: Weakly sorted due to lack of strong bullish drivers, with support around 2800 yuan/ton [1][4] - Rapeseed Meal: Follows the trend of soybean meal, with limited upside due to seasonal demand decline [1][6] - Palm Oil: High - level oscillation due to mixed long and short factors, with limited upside potential [1][8] - Soybean Oil: Short - term oscillation, with supply sufficient and dependent on palm oil for upward momentum [1] - Rapeseed Oil: High - level oscillation due to low processing rates, hoarding, and seasonal demand [1] - Cotton: New - cotton supply pressure and weak downstream demand limit upside, with ICE market range - bound [1][12] - Red Dates: New - season supply pressure and potential short - term speculation risk, sell on rallies [1][15] - Pork: Supply pressure remains high in Q4, with short - term rebound for selling opportunities [1][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - Market Data: As of October 17, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased by 208,000 tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory increased by 2,940 tons week - on - week; soybean meal inventory decreased by 102,900 tons week - on - week [3] - Price and Spread: Futures price increased by 0.94% to 2,895 yuan/ton; spot price increased slightly; various spreads showed different changes [2] - Supply and Demand: Supply is sufficient, but oil mills' profit is in deficit, and downstream replenishment is weak. Brazilian weather and Sino - US trade tariffs affect the market [4] 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Market Data: As of October 17, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory decreased by 12,000 tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 3,700 tons week - on - week [6] - Price and Spread: Futures price increased by 1.91% to 2,350 yuan/ton; spot price increased slightly; various spreads changed [5] - Supply and Demand: International supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is in the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations affect the market [6] 3.3 Palm Oil - Market Data: As of October 17, 2025, national key area commercial inventory increased by 28,100 tons week - on - week [8] - Price and Spread: Futures price increased by 0.11% to 9,318 yuan/ton; spot price increased; various spreads changed significantly [7] - Supply and Demand: US soybean oil competition and strong early - October Malaysian export data create mixed factors [8] 3.4 Cotton - Market Data: US new - cotton harvest is 40% - 50% complete; Brazilian new - cotton processing exceeds 50%; domestic new - cotton picking is 58.8% complete [10][11] - Price and Spread: Futures prices of different contracts increased; basis and spreads changed [9] - Supply and Demand: Global new - cotton supply increases, downstream demand is seasonally weak, and Sino - US trade affects the market [12] 3.5 Red Dates - Market Data: 36 sample enterprises' inventory decreased by 158 tons week - on - week [13] - Price and Spread: Futures prices decreased slightly; spot prices were stable; various spreads changed [13] - Supply and Demand: New - season production is expected to decrease, but supply pressure remains after considering inventory. Demand is improving [15] 3.6 Live Pigs - Market Data: National sample enterprises' pig inventory increased by 566,100 month - on - month; slaughter volume decreased by 479,600 month - on - month [16] - Price and Spread: Futures prices increased; spot prices were stable; various spreads changed [16] - Supply and Demand: Supply pressure remains high in Q4 due to second - fattening and slow early - October slaughter. Demand is weak after the holidays [17]