信用周观察系列：攻守兼备

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the repeated Sino - US tariff issues from October 13 - 17, the market risk appetite declined, and the bond market sentiment continued to improve. Credit bond yields generally decreased, and credit spreads mostly narrowed. Institutions remained cautiously bullish on credit bonds, preferring high - coupon and relatively safe varieties. However, due to factors such as seasonal patterns and the pending public fund fee regulations, this round of credit bond recovery may not be as smooth as the previous one. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on medium - and short - duration coupon - bearing credit bonds for both offense and defense [1][2]. - For general credit bonds, 1 - 3 - year AA and AA(2) urban investment bonds are recommended, which balance liquidity and coupon. For bank capital bonds, it is advisable to choose medium - and short - duration hedging varieties and avoid rushing to increase duration [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Structural Recovery, Market Favors 1 - 3 - Year AA(2) Varieties - Primary Market: In October, the net financing of urban investment bonds remained low, but the issuance sentiment improved. The issuance rate reversed its upward trend and declined, with the proportion of issuance within 3 years increasing. From October 1 - 19, the issuance was 171.8 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 9.4 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance rates for bonds within 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and 3 - 5 years decreased by 8.2bp, 3.5bp, and 2.8bp respectively compared to September [30]. - Secondary Market: Intermediate - term bonds performed well, and the sentiment of long - term bonds also improved. Yields of 3 - 5Y bonds of various grades mostly decreased by 2 - 6bp, and credit spreads mostly compressed by 4 - 7bp. The yields of 10Y AA and above bonds decreased by 2 - 4bp. The 1 - 3 - year bonds had significantly increased trading volume, and the AA(2) varieties were favored by the market, with over 700 single - week transactions and an average low - valuation trading margin of 1.8bp [31][35]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Net Financing Increased Year - on - Year, Issuance Sentiment Recovered - Primary Market: From October 1 - 19, the issuance of industrial bonds was 301.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 140.8 billion yuan, both increasing year - on - year. The proportion of long - duration bond issuance increased, and the issuance sentiment improved. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times rose from 14% to 20%, and the proportion of 2 - 3 times increased from 29% to 32% [38]. - Secondary Market: The buying sentiment weakened, with the TKN proportion decreasing from 77% to 72% and the low - valuation proportion dropping from 75% to 62%. The trading duration increased, with the trading proportions of 1 - 2 - year and 3 - 5 - year bonds increasing by 2pct and 4pct respectively, while the 1 - year trading proportion decreased by 9pct [40]. 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds: Yields Declined Across the Board, Trading Sentiment Weakened - Primary Market: In October 2025, Suzhou Bank issued 4.5 billion yuan of 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds (issuance rate not yet announced), and Weifang Bank issued 1.5 billion yuan of 5 + N - year perpetual bonds with an issuance rate of 2.90% [43]. - Secondary Market: Yields of bank capital bonds decreased by 0 - 7bp, and spreads narrowed across the board. The 2Y AA+ and below secondary capital bonds, 2Y and 4Y perpetual bonds performed well, with yields decreasing by 4 - 7bp and spreads narrowing by 7 - 8bp. However, the trading sentiment weakened. The TKN proportions of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds decreased to 61% and 56% respectively, and the low - valuation proportions dropped to 65% and below [43][46].