Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The price of the main soybean oil futures contract is expected to move slightly higher in the medium to long term, with short - term fluctuations due to sufficient inventory. The main contract long positions can be considered for holding, with support at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and resistance at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of the main rapeseed oil contract is expected to move higher in the medium to long term under the expectation of inventory reduction. Aggressive investors can consider going long on the 01 contract on dips and can buy put options to protect positions if worried about trade risks. The support for the 01 contract is 9800 - 9820, and the resistance is 10020 - 10050 [2]. - The medium - to long - term bullish view on palm oil remains unchanged. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after stabilization. The support for the main contract is 9230 - 9270, and the resistance is 9650 - 9680 [3]. - The price of soybean meal futures is expected to remain weak, and short - selling on the main contract can be considered. Arbitrage can consider going long on the 01 contract bean oil - meal ratio [3]. - Rapeseed meal futures show a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may remain volatile in the short term [5]. - Corn and corn starch futures are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For corn, short positions can be held cautiously or consider the 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage. For corn starch, short positions can be reduced on dips [6]. - The price of soybean No.1 futures is expected to be oscillating strongly, and long positions can be held [7]. - For peanut futures, long positions can be held temporarily, and attention should be paid to the acquisition dynamics of oil mills and the harvest situation of new crops [8]. - For live hog futures, medium - term investors can consider going long on the 2607 contract after the confirmation of capacity reduction, and cautious investors can wait and see [8]. - For egg futures, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2512 contract at low prices [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support | Resistance | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 01 | Domestic new soybeans are in abundant supply, and downstream acquisition is relatively active. | 4000 - 4030 | 4100 - 4150 | Oscillating strongly | Hold long positions [11] | | | Soybean No.2 11 | Weak reality collides with strong expectations. | 3500 - 3540 | 3675 - 3700 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see [11] | | | Peanut 11 | The supply is increasing, and the yield in some areas of Henan is not good. Affected by crude oil fluctuations recently. | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see [11] | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Currently, the supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. | 8150 - 8200 | 8400 - 8450 | Oscillating up | Go long with a light position [11] | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | The inventory in East China and coastal areas is continuously decreasing. | 9800 - 9820 | 10220 - 10250 | Stop falling and rebound | Go long after stabilization [11] | | | Palm 01 | The inventory pressure in the producing areas is not large, and the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. | 9230 - 9270 | 9650 - 9680 | Oscillating adjustment | Go long after stabilization [11] | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | The current inventory of soybean meal is sufficient, and the feed demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter. | 2800 - 2850 | 2960 - 2970 | Oscillating adjustment | Hold short positions [11] | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills is decreasing, and market disturbances are intertwined. | 2230 - 2250 | 2400 - 2430 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see [11] | | Energy and By - products | Corn 01 | The fundamentals are under pressure, and the bullish factors are limited. | 2000 - 2020 | 2180 - 2200 | Bottom - level oscillation | Reduce short positions on dips [11] | | | Starch 11 | The price of corn is under pressure, and the spot market is slightly loose. | 2340 - 2350 | 2500 - 2520 | Bottom - level oscillation | Reduce short positions on dips [11] | | Livestock | Live hog 01 | Feed prices stop falling and rebound, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. | 11800 - 12000 | 12500 - 12800 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Turn to wait - and - see [11] | | | Egg 12 | There is capacity pressure and consumption peak - season expectation. | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Wait and see [11] | 2. Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - period Arbitrage: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For corn 5 - 1, go long on dips with a target of 180 - 200; for live hog 1 - 3, do positive arbitrage on dips [12]. - Inter - variety Arbitrage: For 01 soybean oil - palm oil, operate bearishly; for 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, operate bullishly; for 01 bean oil - meal ratio and 01 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, operate bullishly [12]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The table shows the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties such as oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [13]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipment periods, such as the arrival - at - port CIF price, import - arrival - at - port duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [15]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the port inventory of soybeans, the oil - mill inventory of soybean meal, and the operating rates of soybean and rapeseed oil mills [17]. 2. Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [17]. - Weekly Data: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of starch enterprises of deep - processing enterprises [18]. 3. Livestock - It includes the daily and weekly data of live hogs and eggs, such as the spot price, pig - grain ratio, and inventory data of live hogs, and the spot price, production rate, and inventory data of eggs [19][20][21][23]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock End (Live Hogs, Eggs): It includes the closing prices of the main contracts of live hogs and eggs, spot prices, and prices of related products such as piglets, white - striped pork, chicken seedlings, and culled chickens [25][26][28][29][30][32]. - Oils and Oilseeds - Palm Oil: It shows the monthly production, export volume, ending inventory, import profit, and inventory data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the trading volume and price - spread data of domestic palm oil [34][36][37][40][41]. - Soybean Oil: It includes the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, crushing profit, oil - mill operating rate, and inventory data in the United States, as well as the trading volume and price - spread data of domestic soybean oil [43][45][46]. - Peanut: It shows the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the daily crushing profit, operating rate, inventory data of peanuts and peanut oil, and price - spread data [48][50]. - Feed End - Corn: It includes the closing price, spot price, basis, price - spread data, inventory data of ports and deep - processing enterprises, and processing profit data of corn [52][55]. - Corn Starch: It shows the closing price, spot price, basis, operating rate, inventory, and processing profit data of corn starch [57][59]. - Rapeseed: It includes the spot price, basis, inventory, and crushing profit data of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [59][63]. - Soybean Meal: It shows the growth rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, inventory, basis, and price - spread data of American soybeans, as well as the price - spread data between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [66][69][71][79][80]. Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the historical volatility data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio data of corn options [82][83]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live hogs, and eggs, as well as the open interest data of the live hog and egg indices [85][86][87][91].
养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20251021
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-10-21 05:18