沪锡继续高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas low inventory of tin ingots still supports tin prices. After the resumption of domestic maintenance enterprises, supply increases, but limited by the tightness of the ore end, the increase in supply is restricted. The improvement of downstream demand falls short of expectations. It is expected that there will be little change in the supply - demand situation, and tin prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery of Burmese mines and the improvement of domestic demand [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Situation Tin Concentrate - In September, China's tin ore imports were 8,713.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13% and a year - on - year increase of 10.92%. Imports from Myanmar were 3,136.76 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.9%. Although Burmese tin mines are gradually resuming production, the absolute import volume from Myanmar remains low, and the overall domestic import volume in September decreased month - on - month, so the domestic tin ore supply shortage continues. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi is 8,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged month - on - month [3] Supply - In September 2025, SMM estimated that China's refined tin production was about 10,620 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.71%. Some domestic enterprises carried out maintenance in September, and the capacity utilization rate further declined. Last week, according to SMM, the operating rate of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased by 20.63% week - on - week to 50.35%. The seasonal maintenance work of large - scale smelters in Yunnan has basically ended, but the recovery is only a phased repair, and the overall operating level is still at a historical low. In September, China imported 1,501 tons of tin ingots, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin, a month - on - month increase of 6.78%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is fluctuating slightly higher, and tin imports remain in a loss state. Indonesia exported 4,844.21 tons of refined tin in September, ending three consecutive months of decline, 1.14% lower than the average level in the past four years. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the RKAB approval cycle from once every three years to once a year, requiring enterprises to resubmit relevant documents in October 2025, so there is great uncertainty in Indonesia's exports in the later period [4] Consumption - The peak season is not prosperous. The downstream demand side remains sluggish, with weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets and a significant decrease in orders. The year - on - year data of tinplate production continues to be weak, and the growth rate of tinplate exports is also declining. After the adjustment of tin prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream enterprises has weakened, and some merchants have made rigid purchases at low prices. However, the overall order situation has shown poor growth recently, and it was once relatively dull. According to merchants, the current shipment situation has improved, but the consumption side still needs further improvement [4] Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of October 17, the inventory of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons. The social inventory was 7,925 tons, ending three consecutive months of decline and increasing month - on - month, and the inventory was lower than the average level. The average price of Yangtze River spot tin closed at 281,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7,450 yuan, a decline of 2.58%. The basis of Yangtze River spot tin against the main contract fluctuated between premiums and discounts, and the basis was 0 last Friday [5] LME Spot and Inventory - As of October 17, the weekly inventory of LME tin continued to increase by 325 tons to 27,350 tons, still lower than the average level in recent years. The LME spot discount widened, and the discount was - 142 US dollars last weekend [5]