Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-21 05:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a record high performance for Q3 2025, with revenue of 254.2 billion yuan (up 10.3% year-on-year) and a net profit of 37.86 billion yuan (up 55.4% year-on-year) [7] - The increase in revenue and profit is attributed to rising prices and production growth, particularly in gold and copper [7] - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, projecting 51.2 billion yuan, 63.2 billion yuan, and 72.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 13, and 11 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 352.375 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.1% [6] - The company expects a gross profit margin of 24.7% for 2025, increasing to 31.8% by 2027 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 28.6% in 2025, decreasing slightly to 25.8% by 2027 [6] Production and Cost Analysis - For Q1-Q3 2025, copper production reached 830,000 tons (up 5% year-on-year) and gold production was 65 tons (up 20% year-on-year) [7] - The average cost of gold production in Q3 2025 was 280 yuan per gram, while copper was 25,400 yuan per ton [7] - The report highlights ongoing construction projects aimed at increasing copper and gold production capacity [7] Market Comparison - The company's stock closed at 29.75 yuan on October 20, 2025, with a market capitalization of 612.491 billion yuan [2] - The stock has shown a significant performance compared to the market, with a one-year high of 32.65 yuan and a low of 15.00 yuan [2]