FICC日报：中美关系风险缓释，股指反弹-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The most impactful phase of Sino - US relations on the market may have passed, and market risk appetite is gradually recovering, driving the rebound of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, while the SSE 50 and SSE Composite 300 indices maintain a stable operation trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Macro - economic situation: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was held in Beijing on October 20. China's GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters, with 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year in the first three quarters, but increased by 3% after excluding real estate development investment. Per capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, with a real growth of 5.2% after deducting price factors. Trump said the US would list rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues to raise with China [1] - Spot market: A - share indices rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63% to close at 3863.89 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%. Most sector indices rose, with communication, coal, power equipment, and machinery leading the gains, while non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.7 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising 1.37% to 22,990.54 points [1] - Futures market: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures declined, and the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously [1] 3.2 Strategy - The most impactful phase of Sino - US relations on the market may have passed, and market risk appetite is gradually recovering, driving the rebound of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, while the SSE 50 and SSE Composite 300 indices maintain a stable operation trend [2] 3.3 Charts 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][8][10] 3.3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - Stock index performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%, the SSE Composite 300 Index rose 0.53%, the SSE 50 Index was flat, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.76%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.75% on October 20, 2025 [12] - Also include charts of trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balance [5][13] 3.3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased. For example, the trading volume of IF decreased by 57,144 to 112,287, and the open interest decreased by 8,343 to 257,451 [14] - Basis: The basis of stock index futures decreased. For example, the basis of the current - month IF contract decreased by 43.79 to - 18.42 [37] - Inter - delivery spread: The inter - delivery spreads of stock index futures showed different changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month IF contracts increased by 30.80 to - 13.00 [42] - Also include charts of contract open interest, open - interest ratio, foreign - capital net open interest, basis, and inter - delivery spread of different contracts [5][15][17]