新能源、有色专题：前期锌一致性利空因素悄然发生转变

Group 1: Report Summary - The bearish logic for zinc prices in 2025 was due to the rapid increase in domestic smelting supply after the recovery of mine supply. After 10 months, the zinc price dropped from a high of 25,000 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton. Now, although the domestic supply pressure remains, fundamental factors have changed marginally, and the decline in zinc prices may have ended [1][6][39] Group 2: Domestic Mine Supply Falling Short of Expectations - From January to September, the cumulative output of zinc concentrate was 2.727 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. In October, production is expected to decline by about 15,000 tons to around 300,000 tons. With high-altitude mines entering the shutdown cycle in the fourth quarter, domestic mine supply growth expectations have basically failed [7] - Due to the continuous strong overseas and weak domestic situation, the cost - performance of imported mines is low. As winter storage approaches and smelter raw material inventories decline, domestic mine TC has started to fall, showing a marginal positive factor [7] - As of the end of September, smelter raw material inventories had decreased by 15,000 tons from the peak, and the number of available days had decreased by 3 days [7] Group 3: Overseas Deficit to be Filled by China - From January to the third quarter, overseas refined zinc production totaled 5.132 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. The annual output is expected to be 6.836 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. Low long - term contract prices and high energy costs have inhibited overseas smelter production enthusiasm [15] - LME inventory has dropped from a high of 230,000 tons at the beginning of the year to less than 40,000 tons. The continuous decline in inventory along with rising premiums indicates real consumption. The long - standing strong overseas and weak domestic pattern has opened the window for Chinese refined zinc exports, which will significantly relieve China's supply pressure [15][17] Group 4: Consumption Exceeding Expectations - Apparent consumption has been boosted by the expansion of integrated and processing enterprises. The zinc alloy production capacity of 53 major smelters in China is 2.06 million tons, accounting for 25.4% of the total zinc smelting capacity. In 2024, the zinc alloy output of sample enterprises was 1.099 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. If social inventory accumulates to 200,000 tons, the year - on - year growth rate of apparent consumption can reach about 5.9%. If inventory reduction occurs around November, it will be a positive factor [24] - In terms of actual consumption, exports and domestic demand are resilient. Real estate drags zinc consumption by 2.5% - 3%. Infrastructure investment has a 3.4% cumulative year - on - year growth from January to September 2025, with grid investment growing at 14%. The investment in railway, ship, aerospace transportation, etc., is strong, and it is estimated that this sector, combined with infrastructure, will drive consumption growth of 3.5% - 5%. Automobiles, "two heavy and two new" industries, and exports also contribute to consumption growth. The actual consumption growth rate of zinc for the whole year is estimated to reach about 5%, and the apparent consumption may reach over 7% [28][29][34]