Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but be wary of the repetition of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions may suppress precious metal prices, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October will continue to support the gold price, so the gold price is expected to turn into a fluctuating trend. The silver price has fallen from a high level and may fluctuate bearishly in the short term. The prices of various commodities in different industries are affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US trade relations, government shutdowns, production capacity, inventory, and policy changes, showing different trends of fluctuation, strength, or weakness [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - Precious Metals: The easing of Sino - US trade tensions may suppress precious metal prices; the continued US government shutdown and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October will support the gold price, which is expected to fluctuate. The silver price has fallen from a high level and may fluctuate bearishly in the short term, but the physical tightness in London needs to be noted [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Short - term global trade frictions are repeated, copper price fluctuations intensify. The continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of domestic and foreign macro - liquidity are expected to drive the copper price to continue to operate strongly [1]. - Aluminum and Alumina: The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The alumina production capacity is continuously released, and the production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Pay attention to the cost support recently [1]. - Zinc: The continued US government shutdown increases macro risks. Although Sino - US trade tensions have eased, subsequent disturbances still exist. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Sino - US trade frictions have slightly eased, and the Fed rate cut expectation at the end of the month remains high. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in the fourth quarter. The nickel price may be dominated by the macro situation and fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of high - inventory suppression. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin: The continued US government shutdown increases macro risks. Although Sino - US trade tensions have eased, subsequent disturbances still exist. The short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices in the medium and long term [1]. Chemical Industry - Polysilicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. The production plan in October has increased unexpectedly. Organic silicon demand is weak [1]. - Other Chemicals: For various chemicals such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, urea, PE, PP, PVC, ES, LPG, etc., their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, market demand, and international market conditions, showing different trends of fluctuation, strength, or weakness [1]. Black Metals - Steel and Related Products: The industrial drivers of rebar and hot - rolled coils are unclear, and the valuations are low. It is not recommended to participate in directional trading. The near - month of iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month has upward potential. The supply of silicon iron and glass is in excess, and the prices are under pressure. The price of coal and coke may fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to the new提法 of "anti - involution" in the domestic major meeting communique [1]. Agricultural Products - Oils and Grains: For palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, etc., the market is affected by factors such as international trade policies, production areas' supply and demand, and inventory. The market is in a state of multiple - factor entanglement, and different trading strategies are recommended [1]. - Cotton and Sugar: The short - term domestic cotton price is likely to fluctuate widely, and the market may face pressure in the long term. The raw sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited. The domestic sugar price is expected to have limited rebound space, and the idea of selling at high prices is maintained [1]. - Corn and Soybean Meal: The selling pressure of US soybeans suppresses the US market price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by Sino - US trade policies and supply - demand relationships, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish [1]. Energy and Others - Crude Oil and Related Products: Crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are affected by factors such as OPEC + production increase, seasonal demand changes, and US tariff policies, showing a fluctuating trend. The prices of other products such as BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are also affected by multiple factors such as production capacity, inventory, and market demand [1]. - Shipping: The container shipping price has fallen to a relatively low level, with the possibility of a low - level rebound. It is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].
日度策略参考-20251021
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-10-21 06:37