经济数据点评：4.8%GDP背后的“冷热不均”

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the macro - economy showed characteristics of "strong production, slow demand, and low prices". The Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, with little pressure to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%. However, there was still an obvious "uneven" economic situation [1][7]. - Macro policies have started to actively respond to the "cold" parts of the economy. Two policies targeting fixed - asset investment, especially infrastructure investment, are expected to improve the infrastructure investment growth rate in Q4 and support overall investment [1][2][9]. - For the bond market, insufficient effective demand and weak fundamental recovery support the bond market, but the pricing may be limited. In the absence of significant macro - environment and policy surprises, the bond market may continue the "ceiling - and - floor" volatile trend [2][10]. Summaries by Sections 1. September Economic Data: Differentiation between Strong Production and Slow Demand - The macro - economy in September 2025 had characteristics of "strong production, slow demand, and low prices". The production end was significantly stronger than expected, while demand - side indicators such as consumption and investment were weak. External demand remained resilient, but domestic demand slowed down, especially investment [1][7][8]. - Macro policies have responded. New policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan are used to supplement project capital, and the central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt balance limits to local areas, 10 billion yuan more than last year. These policies are expected to support Q4 investment [1][9]. 2. Industrial Production Shows Strong Performance, Exceeding Market Expectations - In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to September was 6.2%. Manufacturing upgrading continued to drive industrial resilience [3][12]. - The service production index in September increased by 5.6% year - on - year, basically flat compared with the previous month [13]. - By industry, the year - on - year growth rates of the automotive and food industries rebounded significantly in September, while those of the ferrous metal processing and electrical machinery industries declined. Emerging product output had high growth rates [15]. 3. Consumption Growth Continues to Slow, Policy Dividends Weaken - In September, the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales slowed down again. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 3.0%, the lowest increase this year. The policy subsidy dividend effect weakened, and the year - on - year growth rates of policy - supported home appliances and furniture declined significantly [4][18][22]. - Service consumption performed better than commodity consumption. The service retail sales in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, higher than the 4.6% of commodity retail sales [22]. 4. Investment Growth Declines Overall, Continues to Bottom Out - From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, showing a downward trend. The investment structure was characterized by "slowing manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag" [26]. - Manufacturing investment had a cumulative year - on - year growth of 4%, with weakening growth momentum. Equipment purchase investment was still resilient, but some industries were cautious in capital expenditure due to "anti - involution" policies [28][29]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) had a cumulative year - on - year growth of 1.1%, with a further decline. Traditional infrastructure project construction slowed down, and the construction industry's slow production dragged down the investment growth rate. Fiscal policy weakening and local government debt - repayment pressure also affected funds [29]. - Real - estate investment had a cumulative year - on - year decline of 13.9% and was still bottoming out. The decline in real - estate sales area and sales volume widened, and the real - estate market was still "trading at a lower price for higher volume". More relaxed real - estate policies may be needed [29][30].