日度策略：纯碱前空持有新增纸浆卖看跌-20251021

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Equity Index: Bullish in the long - term, maintaining a long - position mindset, with a short - term view of a volatile pattern [1] - Treasury Bonds: Volatile pattern, with reduced pressure for further adjustment [1] - Gold and Silver: Bullish in the long - term, with new positions on hold for the short - term due to reduced short - term bullish factors [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Cautiously bullish, with previous long positions still holdable, and attention to Sino - US relations [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum): Bullish in the long - term, with short - term upward drivers depending on macro changes; Alumina in a bearish pattern [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): Volatile pattern, with the strategy of selling put options at low levels continuing to be held [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Volatile pattern, with supply and demand both increasing [6] - Silicon Energy: Volatile pattern, with the market influenced by short - term policy disturbances [6] - Steel and Ore (Rebar): Volatile pattern, with short - term support strengthened, and light - position short positions in the 01 contract holdable [6] - Steel and Ore (Hot - rolled Coil): Cautiously bearish, with short - term support strengthened, and light - position short positions in the 01 contract holdable [6] - Steel and Ore (Iron Ore): Volatile pattern, with the price having stronger support below, and a wait - and - see approach for unilateral positions [6] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile pattern, with limited actual improvement in fundamentals [8] - Soda Ash: Cautiously bearish, with previous short positions in the 01 contract holdable [8] - Glass: Volatile pattern, with the strategy of holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [8] - Crude Oil: Bearish pattern, with supply and demand lacking support [8] - Methanol: Volatile pattern, with the strategy of selling put options continuing [8] - Polyolefins: Bearish pattern, with the strategy of long - L - short - PP spread arbitrage holdable, and selling put options for the 11 - contract [10] - Cotton: Bearish pattern, with prices expected to remain within the current volatile range [10] - Natural Rubber: Volatile pattern, with support at the bottom [10] - Palm Oil: Bullish in the medium - term, with a volatile pattern in the short - term [10] Core Views - The Sino - US trade friction shows signs of easing, which has an impact on market risk appetite and asset prices. The long - term driving force of the technology sector remains clear, and the market is paying attention to important meetings at the end of the month [1] - The bond market has rebounded from a low level, and the pressure for further adjustment has decreased due to factors such as the approaching domestic important meeting, uncertain Sino - US trade relations, and loose liquidity [1] - For precious metals, although the long - term upward logic is clear, short - term bullish factors have weakened, and new positions should be on hold [4] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by both macro events and fundamentals. Copper has fundamental support, while aluminum has supply constraints and its long - term upward trend remains, and nickel is in a volatile pattern [4] - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the price has a ceiling and a floor. The silicon energy market is influenced by short - term policies, and the steel and ore market is affected by supply - demand contradictions and policy expectations [6] - The coking coal and coke market has limited actual improvement in fundamentals, and the soda ash market is in a supply - surplus situation, while the glass market is in a volatile pattern [8] - The crude oil market is under supply pressure and lacks support from supply and demand, and the methanol market is in a multi - empty stalemate [8] - Polyolefins are in a supply - surplus situation, cotton has fundamental pressure, natural rubber has support at the bottom, and palm oil has medium - term price resilience [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - Last week, the A - share market adjusted with reduced volume, and the main indexes closed down. High - dividend sectors such as coal and banks were relatively strong, while sectors such as electronics, media, and automobiles led the decline. The Sino - US trade friction shows signs of easing, and the long - term driving force of the technology sector remains clear. The equity index maintains a long - position mindset and pays attention to important meetings at the end of the month [1] Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded from a low level last week. Due to factors such as the approaching domestic important meeting, uncertain Sino - US trade relations, and loose liquidity, the pressure for further adjustment has decreased [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver have a clear long - term upward logic, but short - term bullish factors have weakened. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset in the long - term and put new positions on hold in the short - term. Previous long positions in AU2512 and AG2512 can continue to be held [4] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The Sino - US trade game continues, but the fundamentals support copper prices. The previous long positions can still be held, and attention should be paid to the development of Sino - US relations [4] - Aluminum: The aluminum price fluctuated last week. The social inventory of Shanghai aluminum has decreased, and the supply constraint continues. The long - term upward trend remains, but the short - term upward driver depends on macro changes. Alumina is in a bearish pattern [4] - Nickel: The nickel market has a balanced supply and demand pattern, with both surplus pressure and cost support. The nickel price is in a volatile pattern, and the strategy of selling put options at low levels can continue to be held [4] Lithium Carbonate - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing. The resource - end disturbances are gradually weakening, and the price has a ceiling and a floor [6] Silicon Energy - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the market price of polysilicon is affected by policy expectations. The overall market is in a relatively loose situation and is in a volatile pattern [6] Steel and Ore - Rebar: The demand for construction steel is weak in the peak season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain is accumulating. However, policy expectations are positive, and the price is expected to be volatile [6] - Hot - rolled Coil: The supply pressure of hot - rolled coils is relatively high, and the inventory is increasing. The risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain is rising. Policy expectations are positive, and the price is expected to be volatile [6] - Iron Ore: The supply - demand structure of imported ore is under marginal pressure, but the supply - demand contradiction has not yet accumulated significantly. Policy expectations are positive, and the price has support below. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral positions [6] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Although there are supply - side disturbances, the actual improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the upward driving force of prices may not be sustainable [8] - Coke: The coke price follows the coal price. The actual demand is acceptable, but the expected demand is not good. The coke oven start - up rate may decline marginally [8] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, and the industry is increasing inventory passively. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [8] - Glass: The demand for glass is weak in the peak season, and the supply - contraction expectation has not been fulfilled. It is recommended to hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [8] Crude Oil - The supply of crude oil is under pressure, and the inventory is expected to increase. The supply and demand lack support, and the price is in a bearish pattern [8] Methanol - The overseas methanol plant start - up rate is high. The market is in a multi - empty stalemate, and it is recommended to continue selling put options [8] Polyolefins - Polyolefins are in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is weak. It is recommended to hold the long - L - short - PP spread arbitrage and sell put options for the 11 - contract [10] Cotton - The supply of cotton is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain within the current volatile range [10] Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is in the peak production season, but the actual demand is not bad. The price has support at the bottom [10] Palm Oil - The medium - term price of palm oil has resilience, and the short - term is affected by other oils and crude oil. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset [10]